‘Closest Target’: What’s Driving Donald Trump’s Focus on Canada?

Montreal, Canada – In his inaugural address as Canada’s prime minister-designate, Mark Carney made a remarkable statement that has caught the attention of many observers.

“I recognize that we are in challenging times,” Carney said to a gathering of supporters after securing leadership of the governing Liberal Party on Sunday. “These challenges have arisen from a country we can no longer depend on.”

The nation in question? An ally with whom Canada shares the longest undefended land border globally and, until recently, unshakeable connections: the United States.

“That declaration is extraordinary in a broader sense,” remarked Jon Parmenter, a history professor at Cornell University in New York.

Experts argue that the sentiment of distrust towards the US is rapidly spreading in Canada.

In recent months, Canadians have experienced a mix of shock, confusion, and anger as US President Donald Trump has made numerous attacks on their country, impacting both global trade policies and his expansionist objectives.

Trump has enforced significant tariffs on Canadian goods and has threatened additional measures. He frequently advocates for the annexation of Canada and makes baseless, derogatory remarks about outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Canada’s electoral framework.

“The damage to the relationship is extensive,” Parmenter told Al Jazeera. “It will likely have long-term implications.”

As Trump’s assaults on his northern neighbor persist, many are now questioning: Why?

Why is the president targeting a nation previously viewed as one of the US’s most dependable allies? What accounts for Trump’s apparent fixation on Canada?

‘Closest target’

While the current US-Canada trade conflict is “unprecedented” in modern times, it is not surprising given Trump’s past actions, according to Aaron Ettinger, a political science professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.

During his first term, Trump pursued similar “America First” economic strategies, including imposing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in 2018, Ettinger pointed out.

“This isn’t new; we anticipated this. He has signaled his intentions clearly. But now, he’s discussing tariffs at 50-percent rates. The level of aggressiveness has intensified compared to seven or eight years ago,” Ettinger explained to Al Jazeera.

In the context of the Trump administration’s confrontational foreign policy, Ettinger believes Canada is not uniquely targeted. It simply represents “the closest target, along with Mexico.”

“Trump views all nations as subservient to his demands. He favors their leaders when they comply, and he disparages them when they don’t,” Ettinger added.

“Thus, Canada is facing tariffs, just like countries in the European Union and Mexico. Canada is also standing its ground and pushing back hard right now.”

The Canadian government has retaliated with tariffs on billions of dollars of American goods, further inciting Trump’s anger. It has stated that these measures will remain until he revokes the tariffs.

Personal animosity

However, Trump’s preoccupation with Canada extends beyond economic policy.

Before returning to the White House in January, the Republican leader suggested Canada should become the 51st state and has persistently referred to Trudeau as “governor” instead of prime minister.

Trump framed the annexation proposal as beneficial for Canadians, claiming it would allow them to avoid US tariffs.

“The people would pay much less tax than they do now. They’d enjoy perfect military protection,” Trump stated recently.

Initially, Trudeau and other Canadian officials laughed off these comments as light-hearted banter, but they began to view Trump’s repeated calls for annexation with greater seriousness.

Last week, Trudeau told reporters that Trump desires “a total collapse of the Canadian economy because that would facilitate our annexation.” He reaffirmed that Canada will never become part of the US and criticized the administration’s tariffs as a “very foolish” strategy.

Trump and Trudeau have never had a particularly amicable relationship, public disagreements over tariffs and trade erupted back in 2018 as well.

This hostility may be contributing to Trump’s recent rhetoric towards Canada, according to Geoffrey Kabaservice, vice president of political studies at the Niskanen Center, a center-right think tank in Washington, DC.

“Trump is always looking for avenues of revenge and retribution against those who have previously criticized him, and Trudeau certainly belongs in that category,” he told Al Jazeera.

A ’19th-century’ vision

Kabaservice added that Trump’s “very 19th-century notion” of what constitutes a great power is central to his annexation narrative.

“When Trump speaks of wanting to ‘Make America Great Again’, part of his vision of greatness involves an expansive country that claims new territories,” he elaborated.

However, when the US president suggests he wants Canada to be the 51st state, he likely fails to consider the practical implications of such an action, including how integrating a nation of 40 million people would transform American politics, Kabaservice noted.

“It’s reminiscent of a child’s fantasy: ‘Wouldn’t it be amazing if America could expand to encompass all these other nations? Wouldn’t it be fantastic if America mirrored Britain during its imperial era when the world map was painted red?’”

“I think that’s how he perceives these matters.”

Although adding Canada to Trump’s base agenda might not be a priority, Kabaservice stated that the president’s supporters take pleasure in proposals that upset not only his opponents but even many of his allies.

“They appreciate what they view as his boldness, his willingness to envision a new reality, and his capacity to ‘own the libs’ and provoke them,” he said.

Moreover, according to Republican political strategist Amy Koch, Trump’s stance towards Canada should be regarded as part of a broader strategy aimed at establishing dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, aspirations to reclaim control of the Panama Canal, plans to acquire Greenland, and an executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” all embody this pursuit of control.

“It’s about fully asserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere, and Canada is a part of that,” Koch explained to Al Jazeera.

‘Tactics without strategy’

Regardless of Trump’s true motivations, analysts concur that his approach towards Canada may yield lasting implications.

“The essence of Donald Trump is that he acts as a bully, targeting individuals he perceives as vulnerable to his power. That’s precisely what he’s doing,” stated Kabaservice.

“Trump can enforce tariffs due to his leverage over Canada and the freedom granted to the chief executive … However, this process is effectively undermining trust with our allies, which will be immensely challenging to restore.”

Ettinger added that while individuals in both the US and Canada strive to decipher Trump’s rationale, the president may ultimately be “implementing tactics devoid of strategy.”

For example, US stock markets plunged this week amid uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff initiatives, raising concerns of a potential recession.

“He is aware that he wants to take aggressive action, whether through tariffs or escalation. However, there is no strategic calculation at play here,” Ettinger stated. “This renders his approach fundamentally irrational.”