Why Trump’s Top Strength in His First Term Could Become His Biggest Weakness in a Second Term

UJ
—

During the first term of President Donald Trump’s presidency, his management of the economy was viewed positively by the public. However, as he embarks on his second term, perceptions of his economic performance have rapidly shifted, becoming a significant point of concern.

Initial polling data indicated a decline in Trump’s job approval regarding economic management, particularly following his comments about potential trade-induced recession, which unsettled the stock market.

This is a stark contrast to his initial term, where his economic approval ratings consistently surpassed his overall approval in polls conducted by UJ/SRSS, Gallup, or CNBC throughout his first four years.

In an early February poll from Gallup this year, a significant finding emerged: more individuals rated Trump’s overall performance positively than his economic management for the very first time, with his economic approval at its lowest since his initial years in office. Similarly, a recent UJ/SRSS poll showed Trump’s economic approval at 44%, slipping below his overall approval rating of 45% for the first time in his presidency, marking a similar low point to that recorded during his first term. Since January, the public’s perception of Trump’s economic handling has frequently ranked lower than his performance in other significant areas, including immigration and foreign policy.

Opinions regarding Trump’s economic management are still evolving at this early juncture in his term. Pollsters agree that a majority of Americans are willing to allow him more time to tackle inflation, which emerged as a critical concern among his electorate during poll assessments on Election Day. (Latest government figures indicated inflation rose at a rate slightly below expectations.) While many surveys indicate Trump’s overall job approval is marginally better now than at a similar point in his first term, it remains below the ratings of any newly elected president based on historical polling data.

Nevertheless, the reversal of his economic approval standings symbolizes a noteworthy warning for Trump. It implies that if he fails to address ongoing high costs, the frustration stemming from inflation that diminished support for Joe Biden could similarly impact Trump—especially as surveys reveal that many voters feel he is not emphasizing inflation as they wish him to.

The early drop in public support for Trump’s economic handling serves as a “red flag,” according to veteran Democratic pollster Nick Gourevitch. In the recent election cycle, economic issues were paramount, with numerous polls indicating voters sought substantial changes. Thus, if the situation does not change, it could become a significant issue for Trump, considering voters expect him to prioritize economic recovery.

In Trump’s previous term, public trust in the economy provided him stability, supporting his standings even during turbulent times. As he begins his second term, current trends indicate that apprehension surrounding the economy could lead to instability in his political support, potentially capping his effectiveness.

Trump will not appear on ballots again unless he contravenes the two-term limit outlined in the Constitution through his frequent assertions. However, as politics have polarized, a president’s approval rating has become a vital part of maintaining electoral support throughout their term. For instance, in 2018, exit polls demonstrated that 90% of those disapproving of Trump’s presidency favorably supported Democratic candidates, whereas nearly the same percentage of his approvers backed Republicans. Although Biden isn’t running in 2024, over 80% of voters disapproving of his performance cast votes against his successor in the race, Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s strength translates into improved Republican prospects in upcoming elections until 2028, influencing Democratic outcomes in reverse.

As with every president, voters’ sentiments about the economy will play a crucial role in shaping that strength.

Although Trump has characterized his second term as the onset of a new “golden age,” polling consistently indicates that his return to the White House hasn’t alleviated the widespread negative sentiments about the economy among Americans.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment recorded a rise in economic optimism following Trump’s victory last fall, predominantly among Republicans. Yet, as of February, which marks the first complete month of Trump’s second term, this index declined, going below its levels during Biden’s final months. Although public opinion on existing economic conditions improved slightly in February relative to last fall, this was overshadowed by a significant downturn in future economic expectations. Notably, the index indicated respondents are now more pessimistic regarding their financial outlook for the coming year than at any point in 2024. Additionally, the latest UJ poll indicated a notable rise in the percentage of voters anticipating negative economic conditions in the coming year since January.

The underlying causes of this ongoing anxiety are evident. The recent University of Michigan poll revealed a surge in inflation expectations during both January and February. In a CBS/YouGov national survey conducted toward the end of February, over three-quarters of respondents believed their incomes weren’t keeping up with rising prices. This sentiment was consistent across diverse demographic groups, including White, Black, and Latino voters. Furthermore, a NPR/PBS-News/Marist poll indicated that nearly 60% of adults expect grocery prices to continue to rise within the next six months.

Initial surveys consistently reflect favorable opinions regarding Trump on various matters, particularly immigration. The recent UJ/SRSS poll revealed approximately half of Americans believe he can drive essential change and competently govern.

However, polls indicate the persistent concern regarding prices is now acting as a hindrance for him, undermining support that previously aided his return to office. His 42% approval rating for economic management in the February Gallup poll dipped three percentage points lower than his lowest approval during his first term (45% in April 2017). Moreover, 56% of Americans disapproved of his economic performance in the latest UJ/SRSS poll, a significant increase compared to past results, where a majority never disapproved of his economic management during his first four years.

These statistics are especially concerning for Trump among independent voters. Their assessments of existing economic conditions, as well as their expectations for future developments according to the latest University of Michigan survey, have worsened considerably compared to any point during his first term, even at the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020. In the February Gallup poll, fewer than a third of independents endorsed his economic management; this marked a new low for him. Meanwhile, according to the latest UJ/SRSS poll, only 20% of independents feel that Trump’s policies have positively impacted the economy, while nearly three times as many believe his agenda has exacerbated economic conditions.

Democratic pollster Jay Campbell, who collaborates on the CNBC economic survey with a Republican colleague, stated that Trump’s strong connection with his base ensures a consistent level of support regardless of economic circumstances.

Nevertheless, Campbell warned that economic conditions would significantly affect Trump’s standing with swing voters capable of swaying elections, particularly in the upcoming gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey as well as next year’s midterms. “Historical polling trends demonstrate that independents are acutely responsive to financial matters, much more than any other political issue,” Campbell remarked.

Republican pollster Micah Roberts, who conducts the CNBC economic survey in partnership with a Democrat, believes that Trump shouldn’t be overly concerned about the current low evaluations of his economic performance—yet. “It seems premature to raise significant alarms regarding what these ratings will mean for his presidency,” Roberts said.

Roberts noted that even during Trump’s initial term, economic approval ratings began relatively low before significantly improving over the following three years, right until the pandemic’s onset in early 2020.

Trump’s public strength concerning the economy “hasn’t disappeared,” said Roberts. “People still hold the belief that he has sound economic ideas. It is just a matter of time before his policies begin to yield results, and he will then do what he excels at—market those outcomes.”

Another factor aiding the president is that voters’ dismal views regarding Biden’s economic stewardship have diminished the Democrats’ credibility as an alternative. Even polls earlier this month conducted by Gourevitch’s firm confirmed that more voters trust Republicans over Democrats to handle issues relating to inflation and the economy.

Still, Roberts acknowledged that voters’ patience is not infinite. Americans are closely monitoring Trump’s “ability to better economic conditions for everyone, especially for those facing financial hardship, and he will be judged based on that,” he said. “My question is whether this is the appropriate time to start making such evaluations—just 40 days in? By June, if support from Republicans and independents further diminishes, then alarm bells could start sounding.”

Like many Republican strategists, Roberts believes that the waves of turmoil Trump has introduced into domestic and foreign policy are giving his voters exactly what they desired. “It appears to be an unending stream of renewal which, for the most part, seems to resonate well with his core supporters. This is what they voted for,” he remarked.

Conversely, Democrats perceive this barrage of controversy as a potential vulnerability for Trump, believing it implies a disconnection from the major issue of inflation.

“Nothing in Trump’s initial weeks has consistently addressed the core problems that voters deem most critical,” stated Gourevitch. “I don’t believe the public is perceiving enough emphasis on inflation and costs from Trump.”

Polls reflect that assessment. In the recent UJ/SRSS poll, nearly 60% of all respondents—and two-thirds of independents—assert that Trump has not dedicated enough focus to the country’s most pressing challenges. The CBS poll conducted in late February showcased this gap significantly: while approximately 80% of Americans indicated the economy and inflation should be prioritized, only about one-third believed Trump was addressing them adequately.

In that CBS survey, many respondents indicated that Trump’s primary focus appeared to be immigration—a concern that resonated with his supporters—as well as reducing the federal workforce. Campbell contends that while voters may have mixed feelings about the efforts to streamline federal agencies, they do not regard these issues as pertinent compared to their ongoing struggles with living costs.

“Citizens universally dislike the notion of ‘waste and fraud’ in the federal government, and they feel corrective measures should be taken; however, these issues do not affect their daily lives. Ultimately, people demand tangible benefits from this administration,” Campbell noted. “They are unable to identify any real progress on that front.”

The prevailing sentiment that Trump is disconnected from the primary concern of inflation poses serious risks for any elected official. The greater risk lies in the potential conclusion that Trump’s agenda is not merely overlooking inflation’s implications but actively exacerbating them.

While public sentiments on tariffs may not be strongly polarized, it is clear from surveys that many Americans are apprehensive that Trump’s inconsistent imposition of tariffs will elevate prices despite his assurances to the contrary. In a recent Economist/YouGov survey, 70% of respondents indicated that tariffs would likely increase prices, and 60% believed that such measures would disadvantage, rather than benefit, average Americans.

The forthcoming debate regarding the extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts will present Democrats with another opportunity to frame the GOP agenda as leading to increased financial burdens for families. This is due to the expectation that House and Senate Republican tax and spending proposals will aim to reduce funding on Medicaid and subsidies under the Affordable Care Act to finance tax cut extensions.

Regardless of how voters interpret these policy discussions or their overall awareness of them, pollsters concur that inflation remains unique in that Americans form immediate, unfiltered opinions based on their lived experiences. “Unlike other political matters, the perception of costs escapes the influence of news or social media,” explained Gourevitch. “People know how much they spend on groceries like eggs when they go to the store.”

Trump’s tight grip on his base, impressive communication skills, and the prevailing skepticism regarding Democratic alternatives might offer him some resilience in the face of ongoing inflation-related discontent. Democrats privately speculate that Trump may eventually resort to providing direct financial assistance to Americans, akin to his previous stimulus payouts during the pandemic, marketed as a “dividend” derived from tariffs or savings.

However, the clear takeaway from Trump’s initial weeks back in the White House is that he is not immune to the detrimental impacts of inflation. Ultimately, he may face challenges similar to Biden in maintaining high approval ratings if prices remain elevated.