Which Are the Key Drivers Behind This Bitcoin Bull Cycle? 

Unlike earlier bull runs that were catalyzed by industry-driven developments (e.g., 2017’s ICO wave or DeFi Summer in 2020), the current cycle is being led by top-down forces.

The legalization of crypto activities, combined with proposals for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, highlights a regulatory pivot from restriction to strategic engagement.

According to HTX Research, “The dollarization of crypto continues, acting as both an opportunity and a risk,” reflecting how digital assets are increasingly woven into U.S. financial policy and international strategy.

Bitcoin’s Correlation with U.S. Markets and Global Events

Historically, Bitcoin’s price cycles have been shaped independently by a four-year halving rhythm. However, the report notes that this dynamic is evolving. BTC has grown more tightly correlated with U.S. equity markets, particularly under macroeconomic stress or institutional flows.

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Yet geopolitical flashpoints remain a wildcard. For instance:

In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a 12% single-day Bitcoin spike as capital controls prompted a move into decentralized stores of value.
In contrast, recent escalations — such as the Israel-Gaza war and the April 2024 Israel-Iran conflict — have led to sharp drawdowns in BTC, highlighting investor sensitivity to global instability and de-risking behavior.

Conclusion

This cycle’s narrative is no longer purely crypto-native. With governments moving to integrate crypto into national strategies and Bitcoin reacting to broader macro conditions, traders may need to recalibrate expectations. Regulatory tailwinds and institutional frameworks are now central to Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory — but geopolitical volatility remains a critical risk factor.

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