Where has Nigel Farage’s frantic fortnight left Reform?

It’s been a long two weeks since Reform’s party conference (Picture: Lewis/SOPA Images/Shutterstock)

What a fortnight it’s been for Nigel Farage. There have been crushing lows and giddy highs; joy crumbling into heartache; eye-popping success followed by stomach-churning disaster.  

He’s been on a journey worthy of Odysseus since the beginning of September. So where has it left him?  

Let’s start with a recap. September 3 was the first day of Reform UK’s conference in Birmingham, which was billed as the moment the party would set out its plans for the first 100 days in power.

It was also the day Channel 4 decided to air that astonishing sting by undercover journalists posing as dodgy donors wanting to help the party out. Farage and co lost two top officials as a result, then spent the next two days firefighting and denying any wrongdoing.

By the time everyone was on the train home from the National Exhibition Centre, it looked like Reform was deep in crisis with no clear way out.  

Then, less than a week later, there was a reversal in fortune of historic proportions: two £36 million donations from Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne, a pair of crypto billionaires and frequent Reform backers.

Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne (Picture: Wikipedia/London News Pictures)

Cue days of discourse around political donations, and hints from the government that at least some of the money may need to be handed back when new rules targeting overseas donors come into effect.

Amid all that speculation, the news dropped yesterday afternoon that Reform’s leader in Wales, Dan Thomas, had stepped down after being arrested on suspicion of assault and coercive or controlling behaviour. (He’s since been bailed pending further enquiries.)

That revelation conjured up unwelcome reminders of Nathan Gill, the party’s previous Welsh leader who’s currently in prison for pro-Russia bribery.

Simultaneously, it was announced that Senedd member Sarah Cooper-Lesadd had defected from Reform to Plaid Cymru. And three Reform councillors in Durham also subsequently quit the party.

Meanwhile, they released a really terrible phone game.

Banker-turned-politician-turned-gaming developer? (Picture: Getty/SmallBoatWatch)

So yes – it’s been quite a fortnight for Nigel Farage. With all that in mind, you might have expected some sort of impact on his party’s polling figures.

But that hasn’t happened. Most of the main pollsters still put Reform within touching distance of Labour, even after the so-called Burnham bounce. According to YouGov, for example, the two parties have been neck-and-neck on 23% for three weeks.

More in Common chief Luke Tryl told Metro that we should ‘expect Reform’s floor to remain high’, because the ‘fundamental drivers’ of its vote – such as the sense the system is rigged – haven’t gone away.

As the polling boss points out, though, parties don’t get into government on the strength of their base. They must reach out to others – in Reform’s case, that includes some who may be more risk averse.

That was the intention behind the ‘100 days’ theme of the conference: projecting a sense of sober control and careful planning.

The ups and downs of this month so far may have caused a fair bit of damage to that effort. But then again, who knows where we’ll be in in another fortnight?

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