Nine months ago I put together a roster projection for what Team Canada might look like at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Teams are now just weeks away from being officially selected — Dec. 2 is the cut-off day — and so I thought it would be fun to go back and see what’s changed in such a short time.
In sum: a lot.
Hockey is a results-based game, and we’ve had a pile of new results to assess.
We’ll start with the roster I wanted to see in February, and then pick it apart.
Zach Hyman – Connor McDavid – Connor Bedard
Brayden Point – Nathan MacKinnon – Mathew Barzal
Brad Marchand – Sidney Crosby – Jonathan Marchessault
Sam Reinhart – Anthony Cirelli – Mark Stone
Mitch Marner
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Mark Scheifele
Steven Stamkos
OK, let’s get picking.
First, here are the locks up front:
Those names have already been selected. It’s possible Marchand may not dress based on play since February, but he’ll be there (and I do think he’ll play, he’s a gamer).
Here are the “new locks,” in my opinion.
Part of the reason I had Marner as the 13th forward in February was to antagonize my co-worker, Nick Kypreos, a noted Marner-backer. But I’ve got him solidly in because he’s no one-trick pony — even if he isn’t on the power play, he can kill penalties. Mark Stone is a pure competitor having a career year, and Sam Reinhart scores, scores, and scores.
Now, some guys are having down years since I wrote the first article. Jonathan Marchessault wasn’t even two years removed from a Conn Smythe Trophy then, and he ended last season scoring 40 goals. But at almost 34 years old with just two goals and a minus-10 goal rating, he’s a tougher sell right now.
Steven Stamkos is having a down year, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hasn’t looked great, Zach Hyman’s numbers are down, and Mathew Barzal has five points in 10 games. Even Connor Bedard only has three goals in 15 games.
That said, some of these guys are too good when you zoom out to larger samples. Bedard is still almost a point-per-game guy on a bad team, and he’s going to be a part of Team Canada for a decade, so with the Olympics in the back of my mind, I’ve got him in. Hyman also works and forechecks and kills penalties and hits, so even if his scoring isn’t there, he’s still so effective. Skill teams need some guys who play in the blue paint to make space.
Now we’re up to this:
Mark Scheifele has seven goals and 18 points in 14 games thus far. He’s making it very hard to leave him off. He’s a big rangy guy who can be a handful when he’s going, so as of today, I’ve got him in.
With Barzal on the outs along with Marchessault and Nugent-Hopkins, the last name I had in February to discuss is Anthony Cirelli. And we’ll get there in a second, but there are some new names to consider as well.
Alexis Lafreniere has taken a big step for me, scoring just shy of 30 goals last season, looking great again this year, and he’s strong and competitive. Tom Wilson has scored some early this year, and he provides the nuclear physical element. Travis Konecny has scored 30 goals in back-to-back seasons. And, hey, Sam Bennett is a banger who’s got eight goals under his belt already this season, too.
Difference-makers for me are the style, age and energy of a guy like Lafreniere. I think he’ll do whatever’s asked of him to be there, and some guys aren’t going to see special teams. In 12-13 minutes of ice time I can see him scoring a huge goal, or affecting the pace positively for Canada.
So, let’s add Scheifele and Lafreniere to our forward list.
Now, including those guys I have on the outs, now you’re choosing one of: Barzal, Nugent-Hopkins, Wilson, Konecny, Bennett, and…Cirelli.
All I know is this: the last guy there is a winner. Memorial Cup, Stanley Cup, and at the end of games, this is a guy you want on the ice protecting a lead. Canada has plenty of guys to go over the boards when they’re down one. The idea of sending out Cirelli-Crosby-Stone or something like that to protect a lead in the dying minutes is beyond a luxury.
And so, I’ve got Cirelli in. Don’t get too caught up in where I’ve got these guys slotted for lines just yet, as we’ll have a whole article on potential lineup machinations down the road that considers special teams.
Next up: Tom Wilson
Next out: Alexis Lafreniere
OK, on to the defence!
Here’s who I had in February:
Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Josh Morrissey – Alex Pietrangelo
Morgan Rielly – Aaron Ekblad
Drew Doughty – Noah Dobson
Let’s add these names to the pile of options and get thinking.
Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Colton Parayko, Dougie Hamilton, Evan Bouchard, MacKenzie Weegar
I’m still on board with the top pair of Toews-Makar. I still like Morrissey and Pietrangelo, both of whom remain quality top-pair defencemen.
From there, I don’t see a ton of guys jumping out as MUST-TAKE, so I’m going to do something I don’t love doing: I’m going to include the older and injured Doughty as my seventh defenceman, because that guy at his best is a competitive menace, and I’m a little worried about Canada’s blue line being too easy to play against physically. Here’s how I’d have it today:
Toews-Makar
Theodore-Pietrangelo
Morrissey-Montour
Doughty
Next up: Rielly, Hamilton
Next out: Doughty (health watch), Montour
Montour gets in because he’s a massive pain in the butt to play against, and is putting together a great season as the top defenceman on Seattle, on the back of showing up big in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. At least he’s a guy who can put a body on someone hard, too.
Dobson has fallen too far and has too short a track record to assume he’ll be fine; Hamilton hasn’t exactly looked back to form yet (he’s been pretty good, and we know he can be great, so I have an eye on him); and Bouchard needs to be on the power play to justify the defensive lapses. I actually don’t have him as all that close to getting in, despite the massive point-getting ability.
And finally, on to goaltending…
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I don’t think this conversation is all that complicated. Here’s who I listed in February:
Jordan Binnington
Adin Hill
Connor Ingram
Tristan Jarry
Sam Montembault
Stuart Skinner
Marc-Andre Fleury
Binnington and Hill have been good enough this season, with Binnington clearly a bit better. They’re both above average save percentage guys who’ve won Stanley Cups and seem to get better with more pressure. Binnington’s, ahem, confidence helps here, and he’s shown he can handle being The Guy.
When picking the third goalie, I’m on team “if you end up using your third goalie, you’re probably already cooked,” and on team “these guys are all around 40th-60th best in the NHL and so essentially the same,” so why not go with Fleury for The Vibes and experience?
With just over three weeks to go until the roster is selected, these games are going to matter. Decisions at the fringes are probably undecided as of today, so it would be a great time to get red hot if you’re a player looking to get in.
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