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The threat of a US trade war has driven UK consumer confidence down to its lowest level on record, the British Retail Consortium reports today.
Its latest healthcheck on shoppers found that people were much more negative about the state of the UK economy, and of their own financial situation.
“With fieldwork completed just days after Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, it is unsurprising that consumer expectations for the economy plummeted to a record low. The original tariff schedule, since reduced for most countries, was expected to reduce growth in the UK and elsewhere. Yet despite this economic pessimism, expectations of retail spending rose slightly as the prospect of Easter shopping drew closer.
The state of the economy dropped significantly to -48 in April, down from -35 in March.
Their personal financial situation worsened to -16 in April, down from -10 in March.
Their personal spending on retail rose to +3 in April, up from 0 in March.
Their personal spending overall fell slightly to +10 in April, down from +11 in March.
Their personal saving rose slightly to -4 in April, up from -5 in March.
“Even with a pause on many of the US tariffs, business and consumer confidence remains fragile. The risk of higher global prices is an unwanted addition to the £7bn in new costs hitting retailers this year from higher employer National Insurance, increased NLW, and a new packaging tax.
Many retailers are also concerned about the risk of cheap Chinese products being diverted from the US to other destinations, including the UK.
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