Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC caravan makes a quick pitstop at the Apex this weekend before jetting off to Madison Square Garden for UFC 309 next weekend.
All-time welterweight wins leader Neil Magny will attempt to halt the momentum of rising 170-pounder Carlos Prates this Saturday in a five-round main event.
The card also features the anticipated debut of former ONE two-weight champion Reinier de Ridder whose first UFC contest is against all-time middleweight submission wins leader Gerald Meerschaert.
Saturday’s event has lost a pair of matchups in recent days.
A scheduled bantamweight contest between former champion Cody Garbrandt and Miles Johns was cancelled after Garbrandt sustained an undisclosed injury and the organization was unable to find a suitable replacement on short notice.
The UFC announced Friday following the official weigh-ins the bantamweight bout between Ricky Turcios and Bernardo Sopaj was cancelled “due to a medical issue on the Ricky Turcios side.”
Both Turcios and Sopaj made weight Friday before their bout was called off. The same could not be said for all fighters.
Women’s bantamweight Melissa Mullins missed weight by one pound ahead of her preliminary bout with Klaudia Syguła, and welterweight Zach Scroggin was off by three pounds ahead of his bout with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos that he accepted on short notice earlier in the week when Zaleski dos Santos’s original opponent, Nicolas Dalby, withdrew with an injury.
New projected bout order and predictions for UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates below…
MAIN CARD
— Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
— Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
— Gaston Bolanos vs. Cortavious Romious
— Luana Pinheiro vs. Gillian Robertson
— Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dusko Todorovic
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Denise Gomes
— Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Zachary Scroggin
— Matthew Semelsberger vs. Charles Radtke
— Cody Stamann vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
— Tresean Gore vs. Antonio Trocoli
— Melissa Mullins vs. Klaudia Syguła
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win outright -700
The last fighter who debuted against Zaleski dos Santos was Benoit Saint Denis, who has ended up being a solid fighter and Zaleski dos Santos put the hurt on him. Scroggin is nowhere near as skilled or seasoned as Saint Denis and I expect dos Santos to cruise here.
Dan: Gillian Robertson to win outright -400
Riding the wave of Canadian UFC momentum, I think Robertson gets the win and finishes 2024 a perfect 3-0. Robertson is really hitting her stride at strawweight and hasn’t lost since March of 2022, and that was at flyweight. Not just a submission specialist either, she has shown she can win by strikes or grind it out on scorecards if necessary. Robertson is quickly becoming a problem for the division.
Mike: Magny vs. Prates makes it to Round 2 -250
Even though Prates is the real deal with serious power and we’ve seen Magny lose in the first round before, including in August to Michael Morales, when Magny is finished in the opening round it usually is because he is taken down. Since Prates likely looking to stand and Magny being a savvy veteran, I say it’ll take the streaking Brazilian more than five minutes to get the job done.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +100 (to win: $100)
2024 Record: 20-17 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$49.23
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FAVOURITE
Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)
Aaron: de Ridder vs. Meerschaert ends in submission -105
With de Ridder and Meerschaert both being submission specialists, sometimes that can cancel itself out and turn a fight into a striking matchup, but I do not think that will be the case with these two opportunistic fighters. At some point, I expect the ground game to come into play and for one of these two virtuosos to work their magic.
Dan: Charles Radtke -165
Chuck Buffalo will look to put a KO loss to Prates back in June firmly behind him with a win. Matthew Semelsberger is almost two years removed from his last victory inside the Octagon. I have a feeling this one goes the distance but regardless of how it plays out I think Radtke gets his hand raised to finish the year with a 2-1 record.
Mike: Gillian Robertson by KO/TKO/DQ/SUB -139
On a super chalky card you’ve got to pick your spots to find the value and even though regression to the mean would suggest picking this fight to end via decision is a better payout, I think Robertson will be on the hunt for another performance bonus to conclude what has been a great 2024 campaign for her.
Aaron’s favourite record: 20-17
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$413.37
Dan’s favourite record: 27-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$666.41
Mike’s favourite record: 20-16-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$289.39
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HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Gaston Bolanos +180
To say that I was underwhelmed by Romious on the Contender Series would be an understatement and I was surprised that he received a contract. His biggest liability looked to be in the striking realm where Bolanos, a seasoned Muay Thai practitioner, tends to shine. If Bolanos can keep this fight on the feet, I expect him to utilize his striking advantage and score the win as a solid underdog.
Dan: Gerald Meerschaert +240
Reinier de Ridder comes into the UFC with a ton of hype, and for good reason, but Meerschaert is never an easy out. I think GM3 will be in his wheel house on Saturday night with no pressure. I expect him to take a patient approach before asking some serious questions of RDR. If “The Dutch Knight” comes into this bout with anything less than 100 per cent focus, there could be an upset on the cards here. Meerschaert has upset the odds many times before.
Mike: Gaston Bolanos +180
Considering the respective career strength of schedule here, this fight should be lined more like a tossup in my opinion. Bolanos can keep this on the feet and is live for a knockout win here if he stays upright and doesn’t leave his neck exposed.
Aaron’s underdog record: 13-24
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$545
Dan’s underdog record: 10-27
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,447
Mike’s underdog record: 14-23
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$259.76
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Meerschaert by Submission +500
Any time you can find Meerschaert by submission at this range, you have to take it. While de Ridder is known for his grappling, that has never stopped Meerschaert from finding a submission as a sizable underdog, which he has done against the likes of Edmen Shahbazyan, Bruno Silva and Makhmud Muradov. If he adds another to his resume’, it would be a particularly big notch on the belt to do it against the former ONE Championship two-division champion de Ridder.
Dan: Meerschaert by Submission +500
For the record, I was all over the Meerschaert submission win last time out over Edmen Shahbazyan. I remember it well because I don’t get many of these right! GM3 is a submission magician and has shown countless times that he is never out of a fight, especially on the ground.
Mike: Meerschaert vs. de Ridder to be won by split or majority decision +650
It’s a boring dart pick, and the penultimate bout of the card isn’t likely to go the distance, but if it goes three rounds I’d expect it to happen after 15 minutes of frequent momentum shifts and/or closely contested rounds.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-29-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$950
Dan’s dart throw record: 4-33
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$150
Mike’s dart throw record: 6-30-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,750
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
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