The UFC returns to Australia this weekend for a Fight Night event in Perth headlined by a pair of top-10 contenders in the 205-pound division.
No. 3-ranked Carlos Ulberg has won eight in a row and No. 7-ranked Dominick Reyes has knocked out his past three opponents. The winner of Saturday’s five-round main event at RAC Arena will move closer to title contention.
UFC on Sportsnet
Light-heavyweight contenders Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes headline action from Australia this weekend. Watch UFC Fight Night on Saturday, Sept. 27 on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+ with coverage beginning at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.
There were initially 15 fights scheduled for this card but as of Friday that has dropped to 13 with a pair of matchups getting cancelled.
A light-heavyweight bout between Junior Tafa and Ibo Aslan was removed from the card after Tafa sustained an injury, and a welterweight matchup between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott was also removed from the card with Elliott dealing with an illness.
Below is the projected bout order for UFC Perth (subject to change) plus full predictions:
MAIN CARD
— Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes
— Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan
— Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras
— Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
— Justin Tafa vs. Louie Sutherland
— Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato
— Cameron Rowston vs. Andre Petroski
— Jamie Mullarkey vs. Rolando Bedoya
— Colby Thicknesse vs. Josias Musasa
— Michelle Montague vs. Luana Carolina
— Brando Pericic vs. Elisha Ellison
— Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexia Thainara
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Tafa vs. Sutherland ends inside distance -250
Favourite: Michelle Montague -250
Underdog: Dominick Reyes +210
Dart Throw: Montague by Round 1 submission +400
I feel like there is actually quite a bit of value on a finish being scored in Tafa vs. Sutherland because of how tired three full rounds will make these two big fellows. … With Montague moving down from featherweight and Carolina moving up from flyweight, I expect Montague will use her physicality to take Carolina down and find a submission early. … Reyes is going to give Ulberg all that he can handle and he is a bigger underdog than I expected.
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DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Ulberg vs. Reyes ends inside the distance -400
Favourite: Navajo Sterling -250
Underdog: Loma Lookboonmee +200
Dart Throw: Magny by decision +600
Even though Carlos Ulberg is coming off two straight decision victories I just don’t see how his fight with Dominick Reyes will go five rounds. Both fighters pack plenty of fire power and with a potential title shot at stake, one of them will go down swinging. … Navajo Sterling is off to a strong yet unspectacular start to his UFC career with two decision victories. He is yet to taste defeat in his pro MMA career (7-0-0) and while Rodolfo Bellato is a step up in competition, I expect Sterling to get his hand raised again. Bellato is giving up a four-inch reach advantage and could be chasing his opponent in this one. … Alexia Thainara was impressive in her UFC debut win over Molly McCan. She literally danced her way to the Octagon and submitted a veteran before the end of Round 1. But the secret’s out now. I don’t think Thainara will be able to get past Loma Lookboonmee so easily. And as this fight drags on, Lookboonmee’s vast experience could play a factor in the outcome. … I think Neil Magny pulls off a major upset Saturday. He holds a significant height and reach advantage over Jake Matthews. Both fighters have vast UFC experience which means scorecards could be on the horizon in what should be a very tactical matchup. If that’s the case, why not Magny? Enjoy the fights.
MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Navajo Stirling -250
Favourite: Justin Tafa -115
Underdog: Dominick Reyes +210
Dart Throw: Rolando Bedoya by Round 2 KO/TKO/DQ +900
Even though it’s a very difficult style matchup here, I’m a big believer in Dom Reyes 2.0. He can’t fight reckless against a calculated Ulberg, though. … Stirling is one of the top prospects at 205 pounds and I really like his chances to finish Rodolfo Bellato. … Justin Tafa is fighting to keep his spot on the UFC roster and the tape on Louie Sutherland leaves much to be desired. As long as Tafa doesn’t immediately get double-legged he should have the advantage on the feet.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Tafa/Sutherland inside distance + Ulberg/Reyes inside the distance + Stirling
Parlay odds: +145 (to win: $145)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 31 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 16-15 (L2)
2025 winnings: -$16.42 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (63-59-2, +17.11 units)
Cage Lock: 25-5-1 (+$5.21)
Favourite: 15-16 (-$774.46)
Underdog: 15-15-1 (+$780.24)
Dart throw: 8-23 (+$1,700)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (64-56-4, -9.23 units)
Cage Lock: 26-5 (+$8.27)
Favourite: 19-11-1 (-$171.86)
Underdog: 17-13-1 (+$830.24)
Dart throw: 2-27-2 (-$1,590)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (50-70-4, -24.92 units)
Cage Lock: 21-10 (-$322.23)
Favourite: 16-15 (-$370.14)
Underdog: 12-17-2 (+$535)
Dart throw: 1-28-2 (-$2,335)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
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