UFC Cage Locks: Can Kamaru Usman return to form vs. Joaquin Buckley?

1 week ago 3

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The UFC returns to Atlanta for the first time in six years this weekend with a loaded Fight Night card headlined by two of the top welterweights in mixed martial arts.

Former 170-pound champion Kamaru Usman is back in action for the first time in nearly two years taking on Joaquin Buckley, who’s one of the hottest contenders in the division riding a six-fight winning streak.

The co-main event features two-time UFC champ Rose Namajunas taking on Miranda Maverick in a three-round flyweight

Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt will look to get back into the win column when he faces rugged Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos.

UFC on Sportsnet
UFC on Sportsnet

Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman returns to action against streaking contender Joaquin Buckley as the UFC returns to Atlanta. Watch UFC Fight Night action on Saturday, June 14 on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+ with coverage beginning at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.

Watch UFC on Sportsnet

The 13-bout card also features a handful of touted undefeated fighters like Malcolm Wellmaker, Mansur Abdul-Malik and Oumar Sy, plus a slew of veterans that know how to put on a show.

All 26 athletes scheduled to compete Saturday successfully made weight at Friday’s official weigh-in. Below is the projected bout order and full predictions for UFC Atlanta:

MAIN CARD

— Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley

— Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick

— Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski

— Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos

— Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage  

— Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

— Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee

— Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho

— Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa

— Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman

— Philip Rowe vs. Ange Loosa

— Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Namajunas vs. Maverick goes the distance -476

Favourite: Edmen Shahbazyan -182

Underdog: Kamaru Usman +225

Dart Throw: Kamaru by decision +550

I admittedly do not have a great read on this card as there are a lot of big favourites with multiple paths to victory. With Namajunas and Maverick having trained together in the past, I expect this fight to be competitive and go to a decision. … Shahbazyan is always a risky favourite, but I think that if he can negate the grappling of Petroski that he wins this fight more often than not. … While the optics are that Buckley is being setup to make a name off Usman, I believe that will be easier said than done and that if Usman can survive the early rounds that his championship experience will pay off down the stretch.

DAN’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Oumar Sy -555

Favourite: Rose Namajunas -240

Underdog: Paul Craig +325

Dart Throw: Cody Garbrandt decision +425

Namajunas was on a roll prior to her defeat against Erin Blanchfield in a five-round fight. Maverick is riding a four-bout win streak, but this is clearly a step up in competition. I expect Namajunas to find a way to keep this fight on the feet for most of the contest where she should be able to out strike her opponent and get back into the flyweight title conversation or thereabouts. 

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Maybe I am underthinking this pick, but anytime you can get Craig at +325 you take it. Craig returns to 205 pounds where he enjoyed so much success from 2016 to 2022. It’s been a while since he’s had his hand raised but that’s due in large part to the quality of his recent opponents (Bo Nickal, Caio Borralho and Brendan Allen). This will be the toughest test of Bellato’s career and I expect a rejuvenated Craig to be a handful to deal with. … It’s been nearly 14 months since we’ve seen Garbrandt compete while Barcelos is coming off huge upset over Payton Talbot. Barcelos was able to take Talbot to the ground last time out and maintain control. I don’t think he can do that against the experienced takedown defence of Garbrandt. ‘No Love’ has been to the summit of this division before thanks in part to his KO power. Barcelos has only been knocked out once before in his lengthy career, which is why I think a Garbrandt decision could be forthcoming. With his last win coming in 2023, Cody needs this victory, and I think he finds a way to grind it out against a very skilled opponent.

MIKE’S PICKS

Cage Lock: Jamey-Lyn Horth -525

Favourite: Ange Loosa -133

Underdog: Paul Craig +325

Dart Throw: Kamaru Usman by split or majority decision +1600

Another chalky card with plenty of parlay pieces available. Was initially going to go with Mansur Abdul-Malik as my lock but his multiple weigh-in attempts before his finally got to 186 has scared me off slightly because Brundage is underrated and probably undervalued here, so I’ll go with the lone Canadian on the card to get the job done. Horth is a class above Vanessa Demopoulos both in terms of skill and size and she should be able to dictate where the fight takes place.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Namajunas vs. Maverick goes ditance + Sy + Horth

Parlay odds: -143 (to win: $70.02)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 19 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2025 record: 11-8 (W1)

2025 winnings: +$380.61 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+4.70 units)

Cage Lock: 16-3 (+$52.44)

Favourite: 9-10 (-$507.74)

Underdog: 10-8-1 (+$625.24)

Dart throw: 4-15 (+$300)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-1.52 units)

Cage Lock: 18-1 (+$266.79)

Favourite: 11-7-1 (-$139.40)

Underdog: 13-6 (+$960.24)

Dart throw: 1-17-1 (-$1,240)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-14.64 units)

Cage Lock: 13-6 (-$123.30)

Favourite: 12-7 (+$68.84)

Underdog: 7-11-1 (+$290)

Dart throw: 0-17-2 (-$1,700)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)

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