UFC 315: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction, Stats, and Fight Breakdown

UFC fights are never a piece of cake, but UFC Championship fights are a different ballgame altogether. They are layered, and fighters have to be at the top of their game since the belt is on the line. One slip-up and the chance to hold the strap is gone. Breaking down how these pivotal challenges go about is tricky, but we have stats and records to help! We have UFC 315 coming up, and with that, MMA fans get to see two important fights for the title—Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight belt and Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot for the women’s flyweight belt.

When UFC staff writer E. Spencer Kyte sat down with Xtreme Couture coach Eddie Barraco, he asked, “What’s the best trait of Valentina Shevchenko and what’s the best trait of Manon Fiorot?” The MMA coach said, for ‘Bullet’ it’s her fight IQ, and for ‘The Beast’ it’s “distance management and striking volume.” Now this is a bit tricky, isn’t it? If both are so good, then who will win this time? Let’s see their stats breakdown and predictions for that!

UFC 315: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot stats

Let’s start with the women’s flyweight champ Shevchenko, who has been in the UFC since 2015. The 24-4-1 flyweight star has a strong resume and holds the belt, then lost to Alexa Grasso, but won back again in an epic trilogy.

UFC 306 saw the trilogy culminate between the duo, and ‘Bullet’ reclaimed her title with a unanimous decision victory, leaving no doubts about her dominance. ‘The Bullet’ executed a masterclass in grappling, accumulating over 16 minutes of ground control. According to stats by the UFC, Grasso managed to land only 18 significant strikes, which gives us an idea about Shevchenko’s strategy and expert tactics in the fight. Apart from her clinical performance at UFC 306, the Kyrgyzstan star has already been competing in MMA since 2003 and has a lot of experience and pedigree.

Her rival in her upcoming fight at UFC 315 is French pro MMA star Manon Fiorot, who started competing later than Shevchenko in MMA. She has been a pro MMA star since 2018 with an overall record of 12-1-0 and has 7 back-to-back wins in UFC right now.  The 35-year-old is also going to be the first French female flyweight fighter in UFC to fight for the title.

The 37-year-old Shevchenko stands at 5’5” and her opponent is 5’7”, but she a slight reach advantage, with ‘Bullet’ at 65.5” and ‘The Beast’ with 66.0”. Shevchenko is the slight favourite at -155, and Fiorot is the underdog coming into this fight as the +130 underdog. But who’s going to win? Let’s break that down.

Shevchenko vs. Fiorot breakdown and prediction

For the Xtreme Couture coach, Shevchenko fights with her high IQ: “She has tons of experience, title defenses, five-round fights. I think her fight IQ and her versatility are the biggest things. ” As for Fiorot, her reach and striking volume were complemented by the coach. He said, “If you look at her last fight, it was like 181 total strikes; that’s good volume.”

He further added, “I think she’s good at keeping opponents at the end of her strikes, using her range, and her footwork, combined with the distance control and high output striking, is what has made her frustrating for other fighters to try and solve.”

Fiorot is 5’7”, which might not seem too big, in terms of height generally, but for a female fighter at flyweight, it’s pretty big. Her physique and strength, coupled with her striking volume, make her extremely dangerous. However, Shevchenko is cerebral and figures out what she needs to do in a certain fight, and we saw that against fighters taller than her, like Taila Santos, who is 5’6”, or Holly Holm, who is 5’8”.

Barraco said, “We’re gonna see strength against strength, but they’re contrasting.” Shevchenko will have to apply her tactical grappling against Fiorot’s volume and try to slow her down. If she can achieve that, and slow her opponent’s pace, then win the exchanges, it might be a win for her. Fiorot’s Striking accuracy sits at 41%, while ‘Bullet’ is at 52%. The French fighter throws more volume, while Shevchenko favors precision, and her timing with strikes and takedowns will give her a big edge.

If Fiorot has to take advantage, she needs to have a good pressure range and striking, without taking the foot off the gas. However, with the versatility and experience Shevchenko possesses, she is a strong pick against Fiorot, who lacks finishing power. Nevertheless, what do you think? Who will win this mega fight? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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