U.S. Recession Odds Surge Past 50% as Iran War Drives Oil Higher

According to Moody’s Analytics, the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months was already sitting at 49% before the escalation of the Iran conflict. With oil prices now surging and economic data weakening, that probability is expected to move above 50%. For investors, that shift matters. Once recession odds cross that threshold, markets tend to reprice risk quickly and often aggressively.A Fragile Economy Meets an Energy ShockMoody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi pointed to a combination of weakening economic data and rising energy costs as the main drivers behind the rising recession risk.“Behind the recent jump are primarily...