Trouble Mounts for Josh Heupel in NFL Vet’s Tough Joey Aguilar Verdict as Tennessee’s SEC Fate Announced

What a rollercoaster it’s been in Knoxville! One moment, Nico Iamaleava is the crown jewel of Vols football. The next? He’s skipping practices, ghosting meetings, and then packing his bags for UCLA. And by now, everyone’s aware it was about the bag that couldn’t budge from $2.4M to $4M at Tennessee. And right now, Josh Heupel is in a full-blown QB scramble. 

Now, the wild thing here is that Tennessee didn’t just lose Nico. They kind of traded him in a rare case scenario. As soon as he bounced to Westwood, Joey Aguilar hit the portal from UCLA and almost immediately committed to Josh Heupel’s program. Now if you’ve been keeping track, the Vols gave up a blue-chip, playoff calibre QB for a guy who may have not only lost his job at UCLA but this season in general. And that’s a bad look for Tennessee whose SEC standing came crumbling down. 

Former Detroit Lions DB Gerald “Smoke” Dixon didn’t hold back when asked about the state of Josh Heupel’s QB state in 2025. Posting an excerpt from his CBS Sports HQ appearance on X on April 22, he dropped the hammer. “You’re running right back into the way Jeremy Pruitt left, in my opinion, when you don’t have a quarterback that can get you to 10 wins,” he said. “We’re talking about the team that just lost to the National Champions in the Playoffs. So you’re going down a level, down a step, in terms of quarterback play.” It sounds brutal but honestly, he’s not wrong. 

The Vols are running right back to where Jeremy Pruitt left them.

I still don’t see Tennessee with a QB1 good enough to get them to 10 wins. pic.twitter.com/iOAaqG1PaN

— Smoke Dixon (@CoachGVDixon) April 22, 2025

Smoke Dixon isn’t convinced Joey Aguilar can get Tennessee to 10 wins, if he’s the starting QB. And even Vegas agrees. Per BetMGM’s prediction, the Vols are slated for an 8.5 season. Not terrible actually. After all, the Jeremy Pruitt era saw them sinking to 3-7 in 2020. Still, it doesn’t scream SEC contender either. Josh Heupel might have pulled the program out of the Pruitt despair, but without a true QB1, the chances of repeating mediocrity isn’t slim. 

But to be fair, Joey Aguilar’s resume isn’t trash. A former Appalachian State QB, he threw for a total 6,760 yards and 56 TDs to 24 picks in 25 games across two seasons. In 2024, the Northern California native racked up 3,003 yards, 23 TDs, and 14 interceptions in a 5-6 campaign. Not exactly a playoff pedigree as Smoke Dixon views. And less than four months after joining the Bruins to be their starter, this whirlwind somehow put him in an unexpected situation. Now, here’s where things get even more spicy. 

Is Joey Aguilar the man for Josh Heupel in 2025?

Despite the doubts, Smoke Dixon still thinks Joey Aguilar could be Josh Heupel’s QB1 — “Joey Aguilar is your QB1 at Tennessee. He maybe gets the Vols to an 8-9 win season. Aguilar is a game manager, not a game changer.” He couldn’t get more raw on that. But not everyone sees this UCLA transfer as the guy for the Vols. There’s still a wild card in Jake Merklinger. 

As Cameron Salerno of CBS Sports said, “Even with Aguilar coming in via the transfer portal, there is no guarantee the UCLA transfer will win the starting job. One name to keep an eye on heading into fall camp will be Merklinger, a former top-250 recruit from the 2024 recruiting cycle.” The guy’s only thrown for 48 yards across two game appearances but why not take a chance?

But again, not everyone’s riding with Jake Merklinger either. Saturday Down South’s Ethan Stone said it best — “In past years, without the transfer portal being what it is today, Tennessee would probably throw its hands up and turn to redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger. But Year 5 Heupel can hardly afford to do that in today’s NIL landscape.” The leash is short. If Josh Heupel picks the redshirt freshman and finishes 7-5, the pitchforks are coming out. 

So here we are. Tennessee is wrapped with a cloud hanging over the most important position in football. If Josh Heupel doesn’t figure out this one fast, the Vols’ playoff hopes will go up in smoke like Smoke Dixon views. 

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