Three up, three down: What underlying trends say about potential playoff teams

For the better part of this season, the theme was parity. At the halfway point, somehow just four teams were below .500 (points percentage), and 15 of 16 teams in the East were within five points of a wild-card spot.

With a few weeks to go, things are starting to take shape. There’s a much better idea of who might sneak in, and who might fall short.

But as these races are shaking out, the underlying numbers don’t always line up with the wins and losses. Typically, with more time, that corrects itself. As we start to imagine playoff matchups, there’s a few teams that might be in for a reality check, and so I thought it’d be fun to use “expected goals” to highlight teams whose process has been legit as opposed to those riding hot shooting percentages and goaltending.

I’ve written “three up, three down” articles before (which I particularly like as a set-up just before the baseball season begins), so I’ve set the cutoff at three in each direction.

Let’s alternate up, then down.

First UP!

Ottawa Senators

After a run of decent goaltending — finally — the Sens have started to put some wins together and climb the standings. At the time of this writing, they are, in fact, back in a playoff spot. (Hell, they’re on pace for a better regular season than last year.)

And if you win your division and get them as a wild-card matchup in Round 1, that would be a BRUTAL draw. The Senators’ underlying numbers are sparkling: they’ve posted the second-best expected goals against total in the NHL, and the seventh-best expected goals for. Since the Olympics, they’ve been first in just about everything.

So much of their great work has simply been undone by where they sit in team save percentage, which is dead last in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick.

And yet, their starter has won a Vezina. He could find it again.

Yes, they’re badly injured on that back-end right now. But if Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot make it back for playoffs, and they get in, there’s maybe two teams in the East they wouldn’t be favoured against. Could Linus Ullmark undo all of that good stuff singlehandedly? Sure. But he can also get red hot, and half of playoff hockey is just “cross your fingers and hope your goalie is good” anyway. Look out for the Sennies.

First DOWN:

Boston Bruins

The Bruins are in the first wild-card spot, but they’re basically the reverse Senators. Sportlogiq has them 32nd in O-zone possession time, 25th in rush chances, 26th in cycle chances and 23rd in rebound chances, which leaves them 23rd in expected goals for.

They’re just not that threatening.

By expected goals against, they’re 27th, a place reached by being 29th in inner slot shots against and 28th in allowing both cycle and rebound chances. Their top line currently has two forwards with point totals in the 30s (Marat Khusnutdinov and Fraser Minten), and they’re mostly built on: David Pastrnak good, Charlie McAvoy good, Jeremy Swayman will be a Vezina finalist. I don’t mean to minimize all they’ve done entirely, as they do have some good veterans, but let’s be real: all playoff teams do.

As of today, just three teams have a higher combined shooting percentage and team save percentage. It could all hold a bit longer, but there’s a shelf life to winning while playing like this.

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Next UP

Columbus Blue Jackets

Buffalo has received the bulk of the underdog-story love, but the Blue Jackets are the OTHER team in the East who’ve gone on a nearly incomprehensible run of success after a slow start. They’re now up to 19-3-4 since Rick Bowness took over, when they were last in the East at 19-19-7 on Jan. 12. You’ll note he reached the same win total (19) in 19 fewer games.

The Blue Jackets aren’t smoke and mirrors either. Yes, they’re getting proper starting goaltending from Jet Greaves, but more than that, the team process is legit. They’re one spot outside the NHL’s top five in creating offence, and one spot outside the top 10 in expected goals against.

When you plot all the teams in the league by expected goals for and against, CBJ is one of just seven teams in the quadrant of “above average at both”. Do I have the Jackets as a Cup threat? I do not. But as one of the teams just a breath inside the playoff picture, there’s no reason to think they can’t finish the job and at least get to the post-season.

Next DOWN:

Anaheim Ducks

I am more bullish on the Ducks future than the half-dozen other rebuilds that simultaneously turned the corner. Leo Carlsson is a stud, Cutter Gauthier may win Rocket Richard Trophies, Beckett Senecke is big and talented, Jackson Lacombe is a true No. 1 D. Talent, talent, talent and size. With this, they’re ninth in expected goals for, which is the first step to becoming a steady threat.

But as of today, they don’t defend a lick, checking in at 31st in expected goals against, according to Sportlogiq. They’re 31st in slot shots against, 32nd in rush chances against (ugh) and 30th in slot shots against off the cycle.

When you think about how teams win in the playoffs, it’s just impossible to imagine a team who’s among the league’s worst at defending having a sincere playoff run. The Ducks are coming around — John Carlson helps — and there’s a future there for them. But they’ve benefitted greatly from their pillow-soft division, and probably aren’t ready to win just yet.

Last UP:

Utah Mammoth

In a weak West this year, I’ve got the Mammoth as sort of “Carolina East” from previous seasons. I like the Canes a lot this year (Cup contenders in my opinion), but in the past they’ve always been fast and competitive and put up good underlying numbers, but they’ve never quite felt in the elite class of teams. That’s Utah, which is definitely stumbling down the home stretch.

But when you zoom out, the Mammoth are 11th in expected goals for, seventh in expected goals against, and they get good starting goaltending from Karel Vejmelka. They’ve got guys up and down the lineup who can actually make passes rather than just smash it off the glass and out.

We could’ve had a number of teams here: Vegas defends well, but the Golden Knights have lost so often of late it’s hard to list them as “up.” The Oilers scores like crazy, and their defence is coming around, but they’re already on everyone’s radar.

If Utah were to draw Anaheim in Round 1 — a wild-card team against the Pacific Division winner — I would expect betting odds to still favour the Mammoth.

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And last one DOWN:

Buffalo Sabres

Alright, alright, alright, everyone calm down, please stop yelling at me. I know they’re an awesome story, I know how red-hot they’ve been, I know they might win the very tough Atlantic. I know they’ve got it turned around and I love their D corps and they should be competitive for years.

But playing yourself into relevance means people stop cheering for you just for not being bad — and they start to compare you to the 16 very good teams that will be in playoffs. So, once there, are their reasons to doubt them?

Well, they’re 26th in expected goals against, so sure. Defending is important, isn’t it?

Fans, for years, have hand-waved these sorts of concerns away — expected by whom, our goalie is good, etc, etc — but this sort of thing can bury a team in close games. It doesn’t help your confidence seeing that they’ve got the league’s fourth-highest shooting percentage and third-highest save percentage. Those fickle numbers can flip overnight.

They’re a top rush chances team (second) but they give up more than average (19th), so we’re talking about lots of speed through the neutral zone in their games. In the playoffs, that’s always a concern. Will the forwards have enough offence to push through and outscore a higher rate of chances against? Maybe, anything is possible. And some of their numbers are much better since they turned it on post Kevyn Adams, so maybe the totals aren’t fair to who they are today.

But in the post-season, they’ll be in tough to lock it down defensively, and that’s at least cause for concern.

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