The "Artesh-IRGC Divorce": How to weaponize Iran’s 14% desertion rate

While the Revolutionary Guards are unconditionally loyal to the Supreme Leader, the Artesh, Iran's regular army, has historically viewed itself as the defender of the Iranian nation. As the drums of war beat louder across the Middle East, a quiet but seismic shift is occurring within the Islamic Republic’s military apparatus. Recent intelligence indicates that in the months leading up to the current escalation, desertion rates among Iran’s regular army-the Artesh-hit a staggering 14% in key western border units. For Western and Israeli war planners, it is easy to view this simply as a symptom of a crumbling regime. However,...