The three factors that could decide the Ryder Cup as Europe eye famous away victory

The Ryder Cup could come down to fine margins (Pictures: Getty)

‘I’ve said it for six or seven years to anyone who will listen, one of the biggest accomplishments in golf right now is winning an away Ryder Cup.

‘And that’s what we’re going to do at Bethpage.’

Rory McIlroy’s bold, beer-infused declaration in the immediate aftermath of Europe’s impressive win in Rome may still be the best trailer for this week’s action in New York.

Almost two years on, and Luke Donald’s side finally has the opportunity to back up their confident claim in what promises to be the latest enthralling instalment of golf’s greatest show.

Despite Europe’s bravado, few in their team room will be underestimating the task at hand. Europe have only won four Ryder Cups on away soil, and suffered a record-breaking defeat last time they visited in 2021.

But with a strong, in-form team and a returning winning captain, few visiting teams in recent memory have seemed better equipped to create a competitive and tight Ryder Cup.

Should that be the case, then it could all come down to fine margins over the next three days at Bethpage Black. So what could decide the 45th Ryder Cup? Let’s have a look.

Don’t start slow

Luke Donald masterminded Europe’s victory two years ago (Picture: Getty)

Ahead of the Ryder Cup in Rome, Donald had his players compete in three-hole matches during their practice rounds.

The notion that the European captain wanted to instil was the importance of a fast start in a matchplay contest, and it was a theory that was vindicated at Marco Simone.

Throughout the three days, Europe won the first hole on 10 occasions, compared to four times by Team USA. They also took the lead in 20 of the 28 matches.

According to the statisticians, taking the lead in Rome gave a team a 68 per cent chance of going on to win the match. It’s likely to be similar this time around.

In that case, the first hole at Bethpage Black is the perfect opener. The 430-yard par-4 is begging to be birdied and could dictate the momentum of several matches, perhaps even sessions, if one team can dominate the hole and take several early leads to the second tee box.

Control the crowds

 Over 250,000 fans are expected to be in attendance this week (Picture: Getty)

The difficulty of an away Ryder Cup no longer lies in an unfamiliarity with US courses, given that all of Europe’s best players compete week-in, week-out on the PGA Tour.

But home-field advantage remains a massive factor in this event, in large part due to the partisan and raucous crowds that act as a 13th man for the hosts.

At Rome and France in Europe’s last two home Ryder Cups, huge galleries overawed the visiting American players, but the same could certainly be said for the crowds at Whistling Straits in 2021, who created a far-from-friendly atmosphere for the European team.

A similarly hostile greeting from this week’s New York crowd is widely expected, and the home team will no doubt look to whip those fans up into a frenzied state to gain a crucial advantage.

By contrast, how Europe handle the crowds – their noise, their chants, and their abuse – will go a long way to deciding how they fare over the three days, as former European captain Paul McGinley noted.

‘You can have all the vibe, you can have all of the nutrition, you can have all the gym work, the preparation, you can go wherever you want, with all the detail. The bottom line is, can the players perform in a hostile environment? That’s the question,’ he said.

‘It’s not easy. It’s not the same dynamic where you’re playing in a PGA Tour event and it’s friendly fire, and you miss a putt and it’s polite applause. But when there’s going to be a lot of shouting, a lot of roaring, maybe some personal insults thrown at you?

‘Walking from green to tee, can you reset yourself? Can you drown out that noise and reset yourself and deliver and perform in that hostile environment?’

Get your pairings right (especially Team USA)

Bryson DeChambeau is likely to be a huge weapon for Team USA (Picture: Getty)

Aside from their six captain’s picks prior to the event, the biggest task for both Donald and his US counterpart, Keegan Bradley, will be to nail their pairings for the foursomes and fourballs on Friday and Saturday.

Foursomes, which sees two teammates share a ball and hit alternate shots, is by far the trickier format, and could well decide the fate of the Ryder Cup.

With 11 of the same 12 players from Rome, Donald has a slight advantage in this regard and could fall back on many of the same, successful pairings from two years ago.

Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, and Viktor Hovland with Ludvig Aberg all proved superb duos and will surely feature prominently again.

The pressure, therefore, would appear to be on Team USA to find the right combinations, and continue their impressive foursomes record in home Ryder Cups.

Scottie Scheffler will surely be at the forefront of any plans, but having been thrashed 9&7 alongside the now-absent Brooks Koepka in Rome, the World No1 needs a new partner.

The steady Russell Henley could prove a solid choice, while other early indications suggest the boisterous Bryson DeChambeau could go out with Cameron Young or Ben Griffin, both rookies in this event.

Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay will likely partner up again, but otherwise Bradley is scrambling for ready-made pairings.

And should the hosts not quite get it right on opening day and leave the door ajar, Europe may well be ready to storm through and lay the foundations for a famous away triumph.

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