A curious anomaly in tennis? In their sixth encounter at the Stuttgart Open quarterfinals saw world No. 2 Iga Swiatek fall once more to the No. 24-ranked Jelena Ostapenko, who extended her undefeated record against the Pole to 6-0 with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 victory. This marked their first clay-court clash, a surface where Swiatek boasts an impressive 89% career win rate and two Stuttgart titles. Despite Swiatek’s historical dominance on this surface and her strong form this season with 21 wins in 27 matches, Ostapenko’s powerful game and unwavering confidence proved decisive once again. But how is it that Iga just can’t seem to get past this player? Well, Renna Stubbs might have a theory.
After the quarterfinals on April 19, Swaitek was less than happy to be ending her campaign for what could have been her third Stuttgart title since 2023 and 2022. Speaking on this on Tuesday, Stubbs on her podcast broke down the picture for what could possibly help her on the court. She said, “the biggest issue for me when Iga plays her is the serve is so vulnerable.” and it’s true.
From the very beginning, it was clear Ostapenko was in control. Swiatek’s shaky start saw her serve two double faults in her opening game at 0-1, which Ostapenko immediately punished with two return winners, highlighting her strong return game where she ultimately won 42 receiving points to Iga’s 32. This early dominance set the tone for the first set, with Ostapenko consistently attacking first and effectively returning Swiatek’s serves, leading to another break and a 4-0 lead
This underscored Rennae’s point: “The serve is so bl**** important and Iga hits the same serve, almost every time, on the second serve. It’s that kick serve, it goes right into Ostapenko’s best shot, her backhand, she’s deadly on the returns. Iga has got to figure out a way to get more first serves in the court.” Especially considering Ostapenko won a higher percentage of her first serve points (62%) despite both players having a similar first serve percentage (around 90%). So what could Iga do going ahead, if she happens to cross paths with Jelena again?
According to Rennae, she wants to “see Iga start producing a little bit of variety.” On most occasions fans have seen Iga Swiatek’s game is built on a powerful forehand with significant topspin (averaging ~3200 rpm), a reliable two-handed backhand, and strong athleticism. While she possesses a well-disguised drop shot, evidenced by winning the 2019 WTA Shot of the Year with one, and employs a backhand slice for defensive variety.
During her match with Jelena, it seemed like she used none of these to her advantage, which prompts Stubbs to say, “She’s hitting the ball so hard and flat immediately. But there were times where I felt she could have done a drop shot, hit a bit of a different shot, and she chose not to.” This could be particularly risky against Ostapenko, who converted 6 of her 11 break-point opportunities compared to Iga’s 4 of 7.
Rennae didn’t hold back from pointing out what Jelena’s strong suit wasn’t, either. “She’s not a great mover on play,” she said, “So you’ve got to get her moving. And sometimes you’ve got to get her moving in uncomfortable areas on the court.”
Perhaps this advice could help Swiatek as she heads into the Madrid Open. Until then, what does she have to say about her reaction to the loss?
The Polish no.1 clarifies why she looked “irritated” after the match
Iga Swiatek’s struggles are piling up, and her confidence is taking a hit. After yet another tough loss, this time to Jelena Ostapenko at the WTA 500 Stuttgart 2025, the Polish star showed clear frustration. At the press conference, she admitted, “Did I seem irritated today? It was a close match, and I had my chances. The other times we faced each other, I could barely do anything because she was playing all the shots, taking huge risks. This time, I felt that I was the one in control at times, but I lost some intensity in the third set, and that ended up being fatal.”
This defeat adds more pressure as Swiatek heads further into the crucial clay court season, where she defends her titles in Madrid, Rome, and Paris. Since lifting the Roland Garros trophy in 2024, she hasn’t won a title, making it urgent for her to break this negative streak. Her performance in Stuttgart showed she’s still far from her best, and Ostapenko remains the opponent to watch out for.
Looking ahead to Madrid, Swiatek will defend her crown with an impressive 13-2 record at the tournament. But with a tough draw looming, the big question is whether she can finally overcome Ostapenko, who continues to be a tricky and dangerous adversary. What do you think?
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