In theory, there seems to be a consensus: Donald Trump expresses a desire for a ceasefire; Kyiv’s negotiation team has tentatively agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal after extensive discussions with the Americans in Jeddah; and Vladimir Putin has indicated his acceptance of the concept, albeit with several “nuances.”
However, Putin’s so-called nuances are more significant than just minor details, and after a week of diplomatic efforts regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, achieving a ceasefire—let alone a lasting peace—appears to be a far-off goal.
While Trump has been eager to exert pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskyy, especially highlighted by their challenging meeting in the White House two weeks ago, his capacity or willingness to extract concessions from Putin remains uncertain.
In fact, the only concession Trump publicly sought from Putin last week was for the Russian president to spare the lives of “thousands of Ukrainian troops” allegedly encircled by the Russian forces—a claim initially made by Putin but disputed by the Ukrainian military and independent military analysts.
Putin courteously agreed to contemplate Trump’s suggestion—provided these supposedly surrounded Ukrainian troops surrendered first.
This exchange, coupled with Putin’s praise for Trump for “doing everything” to enhance relations between Washington and Moscow, created the impression that the seasoned Kremlin leader is once again outmaneuvering his American counterpart.
“Putin poses a significant threat when he communicates directly with Trump,” noted Kyiv-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.
“He knows how to win him over, compliment him. And he can imply to Trump that these shrewd Ukrainians are trying to deceive you, and so forth.” Many observers believe Putin’s characteristic “yes, but” response to the US ceasefire proposal was essentially a strategically crafted “no.”
“They are trying not to entirely dismiss it because that could harm their relationship with Trump and complicate matters, so they must respond with ‘Yes, we agree, but…’ And then this ‘but’ turns it into something unfeasible,” explained political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
Putin poses a significant threat when he communicates directly with Trump. He knows how to win him over, compliment him.
According to Stanovaya, Russia is not interested in a ceasefire for its own sake but seeks negotiations that would lead to a final agreement favorable to the Kremlin. “Russians have long made it clear they don’t want an unconditional ceasefire,” she stated.
Stanovaya suggested that Putin believes in a “real Ukraine” that exists independently of Zelenskyy and other supposed radicals in Kyiv, believing these genuine Ukrainians desire strong ties with Russia.
“Though they may not say it overtly, the underlying sentiment is that as long as Zelenskyy remains in power, a deal is unattainable. Ukraine must concede that it has lost the war, that there are no prospects of changing the military dynamic, and that the only way forward is to engage in discussions about Moscow’s conditions for peace,” she explained.
This stands in stark contrast to the vision Kyiv and most of Ukraine’s Western allies have for a lasting peace. Discussions led by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron to unify Western nations to provide military support for peacekeeping appear disconnected from the Kremlin’s current stance.
The pivotal question will be whether Trump is willing to genuinely pressure Moscow when the extent of Putin’s “nuances” becomes apparent. Putin laid out his position to Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff during private talks in Moscow, emphasizing the dynamics of the meeting by making Witkoff wait for eight hours before starting their discussions. On social media, Trump claimed that “there was no wait whatsoever,” branding those suggesting otherwise as “sick degenerates.”
A silver lining for Ukraine last week was the apparent revival of relations with the Americans following the White House incident, during talks in Saudi Arabia. This time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, seen as more conventional foreign policy experts, represented the White House instead of JD Vance or others from Trump’s circle known to be less supportive of Ukraine.
Instead of Zelenskyy, whose communication style is filled with raw emotion, the Ukrainian delegation was led by Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, recognized for his calm and understated demeanor. The discussions lasted for eight hours, with only a brief lunch break, and participants noted the methodical exchange of ideas rather than emotional appeals.
“Historians tend to underestimate the impact of human exhaustion on historical decision-making,” remarked Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, on Facebook after the talks. “It’s during these final hours, when fatigue sets in, that paths out of deadlock and even challenging compromises can suddenly become feasible.”
After both delegations consulted their respective presidents, an agreement was reached: Ukraine would consent to a 30-day ceasefire, while the US would resume intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries—a restoration to a status quo that felt like a diplomatic triumph following the previous fortnight.
Witkoff was not present in Saudi Arabia, and Rubio and Waltz did not head to Moscow, leaving the level of coordination in US negotiations uncertain. Keith Kellogg, the retired general originally appointed by Trump as his Ukraine and Russia envoy, known for supporting Kyiv, appears to have been completely excluded from the proceedings, with reports suggesting the Kremlin requested his removal from high-level meetings.
If, against the odds, Trump can convince Putin to agree to the 30-day ceasefire, the discussions would then shift to the more complex issue of transforming that temporary halt into a sustainable peace. Before that, there would be the challenge of monitoring such a ceasefire along the extensive and volatile front lines.
“A ceasefire cannot rely solely on political declarations,” asserted Fesenko. “The military would need to convene to establish the contact line and set monitoring protocols. It’s more complicated now—where previously there was just artillery, now there are drones. Who will oversee or at least observe this?”
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