Tampa Bay Lightning team preview: Can Bolts maintain last year’s scoring pace?

Florida hockey has never been hotter, but after a long reign at the top, it’s no longer the Tampa Bay Lightning holding court in the Atlantic — and the league — but rather their in-state neighbours down in Sunrise setting the standard for what it takes to win it all.

The changing of the guard has brought a few questions for the Lightning. Since falling just shy of the elusive Stanley Cup three-peat three years ago, the Lightning have failed to advance beyond the first round of the post-season. Instead, it’s their Floridian foes who’ve taken over the top spot as back-to-back champs.

Suddenly, the Battle of Florida is no longer just about neighbourly bragging rights — it’s about keeping pace with the league’s best, and that applies to both sides. Because even though the Lightning have been unable to translate regular-season success into more trophies the last few years, the Lightning remain one of the top contenders thanks to their red-hot offence and a defensive game that’s as strong as ever.

After the 2024 off-season brought major changes, headlined by the franchise showing captain Steven Stamkos the door in free agency and welcoming Jake Guentzel in his place, this summer was relatively quiet for the club. General manager Julien Brisebois kept his to-do list short and will rely on some new faces coming up through the system to compete for roles in the bottom six.

On paper, this is still very much a club capable of reclaiming the throne. Can they prove it in the playoffs?

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Newcomer to watch: Pontus Holmberg

With limited cap space to work with — and, let’s be honest, very few holes to fill in his lineup — BriseBois focused his free agency efforts mostly around the edges of the roster. His signing of former Maple Leaf Pontus Holmberg to a two-year, $3.1-million deal after the forward went unqualified by Toronto was a tidy bit of work that could yield positive results for the bottom-six. The 26-year-old recorded seven goals and 19 points in 68 games for the Maple Leafs last year — his first as a full-time NHLer — and while those numbers don’t jump off the page, they don’t have to. It’s his defensive abilities that made him such an appealing target for Tampa Bay.

“Our model is to be a really good defensive team, a really good 5-on-5 team. He allows us to be an even better version of that model. That’s why we brought him in,” BriseBois said back in July.

The opportunity is there, and the timing couldn’t be better for both the team and the player. Holmberg’s presence also helps the team fill a depth role in Nick Paul’s absence — he’s sidelined to start the season with an upper-body injury — and allows for some well-timed roster flexibility as young fringe players will be in and out of the lineup.

Under-the-radar player to watch: Gage Goncalves

Goncalves’ rookie season brought mixed results. The 2020 second-rounder took a little time to find his footing upon being called up to the big club last November, and finished the regular season with eight goals — seven of which came in March and April — and 20 points over 60 games. He then really picked up his pace come playoff time, with four points in five games against the Panthers. It was a promising stint for the 24-year-old, and one that earned him a raise to the tune of two years at $1.2 million per. And it could see him awarded a bigger role, too. Goncalves has seen time on the second line at camp, playing alongside Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. Can he play his way into a regular top-six role?

Top prospect: Sam O’Reilly

BriseBois turned a tough situation into a fair trade of top prospects when, after 2022 31st-overall selection Ike Howard made it clear he wouldn’t be signing with the Lightning, the GM sent him to Edmonton in exchange for O’Reilly — drafted one spot (and two years) later. While plugging Howard into the lineup this fall could’ve been a nice addition to the top-six, there’s a lot to love about O’Reilly. The forward is known for his strong positional game and shutdown capabilities that make him tough to play against. His production jumped last year, too. He helped the London Knights claim the Memorial Cup last season, contributing 22 points in 17 playoff games after piling up 28 goals and 71 points in 62 regular-season games. As far as his NHL arrival goes, patience will be key. Unlike Howard, who’s poised to jump into Edmonton’s top-six at season’s open, O’Reilly won’t be seeing NHL action just yet. He’s already been sent back to his OHL club, the London Knights, to continue his development there. Lightning fans could get a glimpse of him on the international stage this winter as a candidate to make Team Canada’s world junior championship entry.

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Three Burning Questions

1. Can Kucherov & Co. maintain last year’s scoring pace?

Last year saw Kucherov pace all players in points for the second straight season (and third time overall) with 121 — the third-highest season total of his career, and the fourth time he’s broken 100. Teammates Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel both finished in the top 10 in goals with 42 and 41, respectively. Kucherov’s 37 goals and Brandon Hagel’s 35 gave Tampa Bay four players with 35-plus goals. Eight different skaters hit double-digit goal counts. One need not be a math wizard to see that all that goal-scoring adds up to the Lightning boasting the NHL’s most productive offence last year. The squad averaged 3.56 goals per game.

Part of what makes this offence so effective is its chemistry. With the exception of Guentzel, who joined the group last year, this is a squad that’s hit the ice together for several seasons. That BriseBois enters another year with his core intact bodes extremely well for sky-high expectations to be met once again.

2. Will Conor Geekie graduate to full-time NHLer?

Drafted 11th overall by Arizona in 2022 and acquired by Tampa Bay in the deal that sent defenceman Mikhail Sergachev to Utah in June 2024, Geekie made his NHL debut last October and stuck with the big club for 49 games before being assigned to the AHL Crunch for a prolonged stretch. That development stint yielded good results once he returned to the Lightning, scoring a goal in each of his first two games back in Tampa in April. Can he build on that NHL experience and hit his stride this season? And if he’s on the opening night roster, will he stay this time?  

3. Can Tampa get back to its winning ways in the playoffs?

Count the Lightning among the handful of Atlantic Division clubs whose success is measured after game No. 82. And by that measurement, the club has fallen short of its standards three years in a row, though last spring didn’t necessarily feel like a fair measurement considering how big a role injuries played in taking them down.

Suiting up against Florida in Round 1, the team was without deadline acquisition Oliver Bjorkstrand the entire series, thanks to a lower-body injury suffered just ahead of the playoffs, and Brandon Hagel was available for less than two games due to a concussion. Nearly every member of the core group was dealing with some kind of injury — Yanni Gourde had a broken finger, Victor Hedman played through a broken foot, Anthony Cirelli injured his MCL, and Kucherov played through an injured hand.

So, maybe the more fitting question, rather than asking if the Lightning can prove they’re still a real-deal Stanley Cup threat come springtime, is whether they can stay healthy enough to prove it.

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