‘Super El Niño’ could usher in freezing UK temperatures after record-breaking heat

A cold and wet winter could be on the way (Picture: AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)

The UK could be plunged into a record-breaking freezing winter following a period of extreme heat around the world, experts have warned.

A natural atmospheric phenomenon called El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, causes warmer-than-normal weather and sea surface temperatures to rise by 0.5°C.

But this time, forecasts have predicted this year’s El Niño – which scientists say is already here – could be even stronger than usual, compounded by global heating from the climate crisis.

And it could have a significant impact of the UK’s weather come next year.

Dubbed a ‘super El Niño’, it’s predicted to have adverse effects on winter in the UK in early 2027.

How will the El Niño affect the UK?

Meteorologist Sean Batty told STV that this El Niño is ‘likely to blow the others out of the water’.

He added that this could see the UK preparing for its wettest winter ever, although rainfall is ‘harder to predict’.

There will be potential for ‘much colder and snowier weather around Easter next year’.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that involves an increase in ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean (Picture: Pablo Porciuncula / AFP via Getty Images)

Batty added: ‘One thing is for sure – this El Niño will bring some big headlines around the world once it properly kicks in later this year for the southern hemisphere’s summer and our winter in the north.’

This could cause crop failures in countries including Australia and India, leading to rising prices in exported goods.

The severity of an El Niño is determined by the extent to which ocean surface temperatures spike past typical levels within a specific sector of the Pacific.

What makes it a super El Niño?

The super El Niño could spell trouble for the UK next year (Picture: 2025 SOPA Images)

Meteorologists classify the event as a super El Niño when temperatures climb more than 1.5°C beyond the norm, while anything crossing the 2°C threshold is deemed an extreme or exceptional occurrence.

Researchers said they were surprised by the computer models’ certainty in the strength of the upcoming El Niño.

Speaking on its predicted impact on Scotland, Batty told STV: ‘When it comes to temperature, Januarys during El Niño years tend to be fairly average overall.

‘February is more complicated: three of the eight El Niño Februarys I examined were colder than average, but just as I thought I had identified a trend, February 1998 turned out to be Scotland’s warmest February on record.

‘March shows a clearer signal, with seven of the eight years being warmer than average, while March 1998 ranks among the 30 warmest Marches on record.’

The most consistent pattern he found was for the month of April, which was colder than normal. El Niño has generally led to warmer Mays.

Ken Graham, the director of Noaa’s National Weather Service (NWS), told The Guardian: ‘Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather.

‘Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.’

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