Struggle to find a profitable trading system

1 month ago 6
Struggle to find a profitable trading system

Hi everyone,

Posting here to share my struggles and looking for some feedback or advice 🙏

I've been dabbling with trading for around 5 years now on and off, but only in the last year I properly learned portfolio and risk management and started applying it. This has definitely helped me with my capital preservation, but I seem to still struggle to find a profitable trading system that performs well on the US market for a swing trader.

Right now, my trading system is based on parabolic (lucid) SAR and MA crossover (daily candles) and is long only. If the parabolic SAR indicates an uptrend and the fast ma crosses slow ma, I'm entering 50% of the allocation on a strong candle, and then another 50% if the strength continues. I also use Coppock curve as an additional filter for initial entry. My initial risk is usually around 5-10% which translates to 0.8% - 1.6% for the portfolio (3 positions max and 50% first entry). I don't hold through earnings, and I continuously move my trail stop and reenter later if there is more strength. There is a python scanner I wrote which shortlists stocks matching the criteria, but then also look at the charts to decide if it's worth entering.

Last few weeks, I had a steak of 5 losing trades, which is pretty discouraging, and all of them are my initial stop being hit. Most of these cases, the stocks continued going down. I will observe for a few more months, but it seems that my approach doesn't work. I tried a few other trend following approaches too before and they failed.

Do you / did you have similar struggles? How many changes did you have to implement before you became profitable? What is your current approach that works for you?

TLDR: Changed several trading systems but still unsuccessful. Trading as a swing trader on daily timeframe. Did you have to change your trading systems few times before becoming profitable? What system / approach works for you?

Here is an example of the most recent losing trade:

https://preview.redd.it/0s412ay8cqsd1.png?width=2092&format=png&auto=webp&s=b41564ae72f31b08cca655cbccfdd8450f999d9b

The green line is my entry following strength after the MAs cross and the red line is my stop loss which was hit. I set my market buy order for 50% of the size after I saw a green candle close. I'm in Australia so my orders are executed overnight.

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