Scout’s Analysis: What to expect from James Hagens in pro hockey

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Rommie Analytics

After James Hagens’ season with Boston College ended last week, in a 4-3 OT loss to UConn in the Hockey East semifinals, anticipation started to build towards his arrival in pro hockey.

On Monday Hagens did sign with the Bruins, albeit the Providence Bruins, Boston’s farm team. With the NHL squad in the middle of a tight playoff race, the team and player both decided to start off Hagens’ pro career in the AHL with a first-place team and one poised to go on a long run of its own in the playoffs.

Hagens’ pro debut will take place Wednesday night when Providence faces the Springfield Thunderbirds. His first look with the NHL team will have to wait for another day.

“This team has scratched and clawed to be in the position they’re in and ultimately it will be Marco’s (Sturm) decision who goes in and who comes out of the lineup,” Bruins GM Don Sweeney said about why Hagens is starting in the AHL. “And James may or may not be part of that, but deep down this just gives him the opportunity. He was ready to leave school and have the opportunity to play pro and this provides the immediate opportunity to be in the lineup and take what a lot of people think are necessary steps.”

After starting last season atop most draft rankings, Hagens started to slide as his draft year went on, not because of anything he wasn’t doing, but because of how strong the class was pushing. Ultimately, Matthew Schaefer went first overall to the Islanders and he’s on track to win the Calder Trophy right away.

Hagens, surprisingly, fell to Boston at No. 7.

His follow-up season was spectacular. Hagens improved by 10 points in three fewer games year over year and his 47 points led all Hockey East players and was tied for eighth-best across all of college hockey. He was also named one of the 10 finalists for the Hobey Baker Award.

Hagens’ deal with the Bruins is currently for an Amateur Tryout Agreement, meaning he still has to sign his full entry-level contract before being eligible to join the Bruins. Boston set up a similar path for Charlie McAvoy, who also signed an ATO in 2017 after his season at Boston University ended. McAvoy played four regular-season games with Providence, but joined Boston in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and played every game in a Round 1 exit against Ottawa.

It’s possible that Hagens follows a similar path.

Projected as an NHL centre over the long-term, Hagens was a winger this season in the NCAA and figures to start his pro career on the flank as well. If a contract and call-up to the NHL soon follows, we’d project him fitting in on Boston’s left side. The NHL team has 11 games left in its regular season, sits in the first wild-card spot just one point clear of the playoff cut line, with a need for another offensively inclined player. If Hagens makes an immediate impact in Providence, it will be hard for Sweeney and Sturm to keep him down there.

For a closer look at what to expect from Hagens, we asked our scout Jason Bukala some questions about the player.

SCOUT’S ANALYSIS

What are Hagens’ primary strengths and weaknesses, and how did they develop this season?

Hagens has always been considered a high-end, even elite, offensive prospect. He’s especially dangerous on the power play when he’s in motion and looking for seams to make plays. Hagens is equally a shooter and a distributor overall. He’s a dual threat to make plays and has top-line NHL upside in time. 

His main weakness is his developing game defensively, but I’m not at the point where I feel he lacks engagement or awareness of how to defend with or without the puck as he graduates to the pro level. He plays the wing, but might end up a centre in time. He has shown he can be used in a depth penalty-killing role. Players like Hagens like to push the narrative offensively, which sometimes leads to more turnovers than takeaways. I will monitor how hard he works to win pucks back after his own turnovers.  

Do you think the AHL is the best start for him at the pro level?

The Bruins are in the hunt for a playoff spot and likely don’t want to disrupt anything in their room at this point of the season. In my opinion, the players pulling on the jersey are sacrificing during the hardest time of the year, and that factors into the decision-making process with Hagens.

That said, I have no issues with any prospect beginning his journey to the NHL with some seasoning at the AHL level first. In fact, the AHL is a perfect starting point and it’s a very difficult league for a prospect to have immediate success in. If Hagens does exceptionally well, the Bruins can still sign him to his NHL contract, the same way they did with Charlie McAvoy in 2017. 

When would you want to sign him to an NHL contract? Before or after the Bruins clinch, or after they are eliminated from playoff contention? 

Difficult question to answer and the reason is the Providence Bruins are a first-place club. The more high-leverage games he plays in Providence — like if they go on a deep Calder Cup playoff run — the better it is for Hagens and the Bruins long-term. Having said that, Hagens’ team might advise him to burn a year off his entry-level contract by signing his NHL deal and dressing for the Bruins down the stretch. Either way, more high-leverage AHL games will benefit Hagens the most.  

If the Bruins make the post-season, would you like to see him get into playoff games or would you want him to get post-season games in Providence, the AHL’s best team? 

If the Bruins make the playoffs they might want to have him under contract as a security blanket in case of injury. The overall strategy is fluid, almost week-to-week at this stage of the season. 

What do you project his impact being next season, either at the AHL or NHL level?

Hagens will challenge for a top-six role with the Bruins next fall. I don’t see him playing the middle anytime soon at the pro level, however, so it will be interesting to see who centres Hagens when he arrives in the NHL. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him skating on the same line as David Pastrnak to start next season. A lot of his early deployment will depend on the organization’s willingness to be patient while Hagens adjusts to playing a more complete three-zone game and is allowed to play “free” offensively. 

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