Scout’s Analysis: Looking at the goalie trade market and cost of acquisition

With the NHL trade deadline just over two weeks away, some teams have an obvious need to upgrade their goaltending if they hope to make the playoffs or go on a deep run this spring.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the market sets itself if Jacob Markstrom, for example, is moved to a contending team in the coming days.

Here’s a look at some teams who might have a need for a goalie, followed by candidates to be traded and what the cost of acquisition could look like:

IDENTIFYING TEAMS THAT MAY NEED A GOALIE

• The Carolina Hurricanes are relying on Pyotr Kochetkov as their starter while Frederik Andersen continues to recover from blood clotting issues that have kept him out of the lineup for several months.

Kochetkov has posted decent numbers overall this season. In 28 games his GAA is 2.46 and his save percentage is .905.

• The New Jersey Devils have been one of the most inconsistent teams in relation to their goaltending this year. Their starter is Vitek Vanecek who has posted a 3.18 GAA and .890 save percentage over 32 games.

• The LA Kings’ salary cap constraints meant they had to go out and sign veteran netminders Cam Talbot and David Rittich last off-season. The two goalies combined count for only $1.875 million against the Kings’ cap. On balance, both goalies have delivered in relation to their salaries. Talbot has posted a 2.53 GAA and .913 save percentage over 35 games played, while Rittich’s stat line reads 2.25 GAA and .919 save percentage in 15 appearances.

• The Edmonton Oilers weathered some early season storms between the pipes.

Stuart Skinner has been excellent over the past couple months, but his most recent five-game segment provided a 2-3-0 record, 3.44 GAA and .881 save percentage.

The good news is Calvin Pickard has been steady when called upon, with a 2.48 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 games.

I don’t believe the Oilers are looking to add a goalie at the deadline, but the conversation should be part of the process of evaluating their entire roster before the playoffs.

• The Colorado Avalanche are a contending team that has been riding the coattails of Alexandar Georgiev. He’s had his moments of inconsistency this season, but the Avs don’t have a second-tier starter to rely on beyond Georgiev.

Georgiev has posted a 2.90 GAA and .899 save percentage this season.

Will Colorado look to add more depth between the pipes at the deadline?

• Another team that comes to mind is Philadelphia. I recognize they don’t want to sacrifice any future assets, but they also look like a team that could be a difficult out in the playoffs. Samuel Ersson has been mostly solid for the Flyers, but beyond him they don’t have anyone who looks like they can be thrust into action at the hardest time of the year.

Ersson’s still a developing goalie at the NHL level. He’s only 24 years young. He’s had nights where he looked like a true number one, but also others he looked like a backup. It’s part of the process of maturing at this level.

Ersson has posted a tidy 2.64 GAA, though his .898 save percentage has room to improve.

Do the Flyers decide to roll along and throw Ersson to the wolves come playoffs without any real support behind him? Or do they add a goaltender on an expiring contract as a safety move?

• Will the Toronto Maple Leafs stand pat with what they have in Ilya Samsonov, Martin Jones and, when healthy again, Joseph Woll?

Everyone knows the trials and tribulations Samsonov went through earlier in the season. He’s looked much better recently, winning four of his past five starts and posting a 2.61 GAA and .902 save percentage.

Jones has been called upon to play 19 games. He’s been mostly solid for Toronto, although he did appear to run out of gas for a stretch before Samsonov returned to form. Jones has posted a 2.69 GAA and a .908 save percentage.

High ankle sprains are brutal injuries to rehab for hockey players, especially goalies. I’m not confident Woll will return to 100 per cent health this season. It might take until next year before he’s back to himself.

So would Toronto dip their toe in the goalie market? Perhaps swing for the fences and make a big splash?

TRADE CANDIDATES AND COST OF ACQUISITION

Marc-Andre Fleury, Minnesota Wild

The veteran goalie has a full no-move clause in his contract and a cap hit of $3.5 million. So far this season Fleury has a 2.96 GAA paired with an .897 save percentage in 27 games for the Wild.

At this stage of his career, I see Fleury as a goalie who can complement his partner but not necessarily be relied upon to be the number one puck stopper on a contending team.

The cost to acquire Fleury should mirror something close to what Minnesota originally paid Chicago for his services two years ago since his game is similar to where it was in 2022. Chicago acquired a second-round pick for Fleury and absorbed 50 per cent of his contract.

Carolina, Edmonton and Philadelphia are teams that own second-round picks. Carolina and Philadelphia can fit Fleury under their cap, but Edmonton would require the Wild to retain dollars.

Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames

It feels like Markstrom will set the goalie market in motion if he’s traded.

His contract is armed with a full no-move clause so he has a say in where he goes at the deadline. His deal also has two more seasons left as well, and carries an AAV of $6 million.

Markstrom has arguably been the Flames’ best player this season. He’s bounced back nicely from last season (2.92 GAA/.892 SV%) with a 2023-24 stat line that reads 2.60 GAA and .913 save percentage.

The team acquiring a number one goalie like Markstrom will have to spend their first-round pick in this year’s draft, plus additional assets. The fact that Markstrom has input in the decision could marginally drive the price down, but the additional assets are likely to include a prospect and a roster player.

Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators

Saros played 64 games for the Preds in 2022-23 and posted a 2.69 GAA and a .919 save percentage.

This season his numbers are down considerably (3.02 GAA / .903 SV%), but he’s still a number one goalie. He’s capable of playing better. If a contending team that plays with structure acquired Saros, he could be the answer and provide high level goaltending come playoffs.

Saros’ contract has one more year left on it, too, with a $5 million AAV, and isn’t armed with any trade protection.

Saros is only 28 years old and should have at least six solid years still ahead of him. The cost to acquire the Preds’ number one goalie will cut deep. I would expect Nashville to receive a first-round pick this year, a second-round pick next season, and a high-ranked prospect…or…a first-round pick this year and a high-end prospect/roster player already in the NHL and trending upwards.

Toronto and Colorado are teams on the list that do not own second-round picks in 2025, which likely means they wouldn’t have the assets to make this deal happen for their team.

Kaapo Kahkonen, San Jose Sharks

Kahkonen flies under the radar compared other names that come up in trade speculation. He’s playing for a west coast team that’s in the midst of a tear down and rebuild. But he’s an interesting name to keep an eye on.

Kahkkonen has good size (6-foot-2, 216 pounds), he’s athletic and takes up a ton of net. He’s on an expiring contract that carries an AAV of $2.75 million and his stats this season include a 3.46 GAA paired with a .905 save percentage. His goals-against average needs to be seen within the context that the Sharks are a lottery team that could end up at the very bottom of the standings this season.

It will depend on how much money the Sharks are asked to retain in a deal for Kahkonen, but he could be affordable. Due to the fact he hasn’t seen playoff action in his career yet, I expect a third-round pick plus a late-round pick (if the Sharks retain money) will be the cost of doing business.

The Kings and Avalanche do not have a third-round pick in this draft cycle.

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OTHER NAMES TO WATCH

• Jake Allen is having a very mediocre year in Montreal with a 3.66 GAA and .894 save percentage.

Making matters more convoluted is the fact he has one more year left on his contract that pays $3.85 million.

The market, in my opinion, is lukewarm for Allen. Montreal will certainly be asked to retain salary if he is moved before the deadline.

• Elvis Merzlikins has gotten caught in some of the ups and downs that have occurred in Columbus this season and he’s been wildly inconsistent. He’s posted a 3.27 GAA and a .902 save percentage.

What makes things more difficult are the years left on Merzlikins’ contract. He’s signed through 2026-27 with an AAV of $5.4 million and his deal is armed with a 10-team no trade clause.

I don’t see a playoff team adding Merzlikins in his current state. His mindset, after a topsy-turvy year, would be too much of a concern for me. I’m not sure I could trust him to handle playoff stress given the current state of his game.

HYPOTHETICAL TRADES

I’m not in the rumour business. But since we’ve come this far with this exercise I may as well propose a couple of trade scenarios for your enjoyment and to give an idea of what hypothetical costs may look like:

To Toronto: Jacob Markstrom, 2024 sixth-round pick (CGY)
To Calgary: Ilya Samsonov, Topi Niemela, 2024 first-round pick (TOR), 2024 third-round pick (NYI)
Note: Calgary retains 50 per cent of Markstrom’s contract

To Colorado: Marc-Andre Fleury, 2024 sixth-round pick (MIN)
To Minnesota: Caleb Jones, Justus Annunen, 2024 fourth-round pick (COL), 2025 third-round pick (COL)
Note: Minnesota retains 50 per cent of Fleury’s contract

To New Jersey: Juuse Saros
To Nashville: Dawson Mercer, 2024 first-round pick (NJ)

Jason Bukala is a former NHL scouting director and founder of The Pro Hockey Group

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