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Despite their flaws, millennials introduced into our lexicon the term “cope” as a noun. To put it simply, a cope is an effort to downplay the severity of a situation, and numerous examples can be found in these troubling times. “At least Donald Trump will benefit business.” That’s a cope. “If there’s one thing Donald Trump pays attention to, it’s the stock market.” That’s a top-tier cope. Pointing out the deteriorating economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, under the assumption that “Donald Trump can’t disregard these figures,” is this month’s cope.
In reality, he can disregard them. The fundamental truth of Trump’s second term is that he cannot pursue a third term. He is now free from the constraints of public sentiment, which effectively kept him in check during his first term. If his tariffs trigger a recession, or his foreign policy leads to a global crisis that plummets his approval ratings, what does he truly stand to lose? At worst, the Republicans — whom he holds little regard for — may falter in the midterm elections, but a second-term president ultimately becomes a lame duck irrespective.
After addressing this concern since November, I brace for two rebuttals. One is that Trump aims to position JD Vance or perhaps a relative as the GOP candidate in 2028, thus he shouldn’t jeopardize their prospects with economic and geopolitical turmoil. Please. Even standard leaders like Angela Merkel, Tony Blair, and Joe Biden have been careless with their succession planning. Should we really believe that an egomaniac of Trump’s caliber will restrain himself out of strategic concern for another individual’s future three years ahead? (By the way, a politician often looks better, not worse, if their successor fails with voters.)
The second counterpoint is that Trump could simply ignore the 22nd amendment and run again, or even cancel the upcoming presidential election. While it would be unwise to dismiss this possibility outright, we’re discussing the potential collapse of a significant constitution here. It’s a low-probability event. The baseline expectation must be that Trump will have to vacate office on schedule, at age 82, and is aware of it. Consequently, the looming threat of recession and unpopularity in the coming years might not trouble him as much as analytical minds tend to believe.
In fact, the situation may be even direr. Among the three most harmful actions that Trump is undertaking — limiting support for Ukraine, undermining domestic institutions, and enforcing tariffs — a recession could propel him to intensify the first two acts. The more the economy falters, the greater the justification to withhold limited US resources from European defense. The worse the fiscal outlook, the stronger the rationale to dismantle the federal government and other public entities. Recession could act as a radicalizing force, rather than a sobering experience.
Essentially, Trump has transformed into an almost post-political entity, capable of executing actions for their own sake rather than evaluating them for electoral impact. The first-term Trump wouldn’t have divulged that tariffs produce “disturbance,” as it would be a political self-sabotage. The initial administration focused on appealing to swing voters; this one seeks to engage with the MAGA base. The first term was filled with mundane business figures; this one comprises millennial dreamers pursuing unimaginable wealth. The first engaged in typical populism; this one leans towards a nihilistic ethos.
There exists only one Trump cope that contains a kernel of truth. He remains responsive to concessions from opposing parties, whether through personal praise or material incentives. For proof of this negotiability, consider the fluctuating tariffs against Canada or the variable intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, which seem contingent on those nations’ level of acquiescence to Trump in a given week. But as for the electorate? The discipline to cater to the floating voter? He severed that bond in November.
Because it imposes so few formal restrictions on the executive branch, Britain’s constitution is fundamentally a massive gamble on the integrity of politicians. One aspect of the US system is quite similar, particularly regarding the second term of a presidency, especially during the last two years. At that juncture, the president is aware of their departure date, yet remains the most powerful individual globally. While the Supreme Court and other constraints remain, much relies on that person’s ethical compass to keep them in line (alongside their desire to avoid being an outcast in retirement). Iran-Contra and the broader Watergate cover-up exemplify how many postwar scandals emerge in second terms.
Now, envision someone in that environment who lacks a sense of responsibility towards the republic and, as he enters his ninth decade, has an abundance of retirement time awaiting him. The conditions could not be more opportune for Trump to exit in a spectacular manner devoid of glory.
Since November, it has been challenging to shake the notion that many individuals, believing they overreacted to Trump during his first term, are now underreacting. This sentiment can be observed in the apathetic response that characterizes the current Democratic message. I particularly perceive this among business leaders, who possess an endearing, albeit misguided, belief that everyone ultimately shares their pragmatic outlook. Their assumption seems to be that Trump, motivated by a typical politician’s fear of recession and the public backlash that ensues, will reconsider his most detrimental ideas as their economic repercussions become evident. To me, this analysis of the man feels clever and insightful, but perhaps eight years outdated.
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