The MLB GM Meetings this week did not reveal anything definitive about the Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason plans, but it appears the club might be more active in the starting pitching market than expected.
While Toronto’s roster strength is its rotation, that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be served by an injection of talent. Its foundational trio of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassit have a combined age of 98—and none of them are under team control past 2026, with Berríos carrying an opt-out after that season.
The bottom of the rotation (Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez) are both difficult to project with the former coming off a mind-boggling late-season breakout and the latter following a workload-building year that yielded mixed results.
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Although the Blue Jays could justifiably stand pat — particularly if they were bullish on emerging prospects Jake Bloss and Adam Macko — the team doesn’t have an unimpeachable rotation on its hands. The starters are the best position group on the club as much due to the lack of high-end bullpen talent and significant lineup holes as their own merit.
If Toronto adds a starter in free agency, it’s likely to target a top-of-the-rotation guy who changes the complexion of the whole unit and sends Rodríguez to the bullpen with no questions asked or opt for more of a depth starter to compete for a spot who could have relief utility.
Adding another middle-of-the-rotation type at market rates would make the team’s rotation awfully expensive without an elite ceiling, which would be tough to justify considering the other weaknesses on the team.
Below are some notable targets that fit the profile of expensive difference maker or more affordable floor raiser:
Difference Makers
Age: 30
Throws: Left
2024 Stats: 8.57 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9 in 174.1 IP. 3.25 ERA and 3.64 xERA (3.4 fWAR)
Average FanGraphs’ Contract Estimate: 5 years, $133.5 million ($26.7M AAV)
Qualifying Offer: Yes
Why he fits: Fried doesn’t have a fastball with remarkable velocity or movement, but he does just about everything well.
Since the beginning of the 2020 season he ranks 11th among all pitchers in fWAR (15.4) despite missing much of 2023 to a forearm strain, thanks in large part to his ability to force weak contact.
In those five seasons he ranks sixth in the majors in groundball rate (54.2%) and fourth in HR/9 (0.67) while residing in the 90th percentile or betting in average exit velocity against each season. His strikeout rate isn’t outstanding, but it’s far from troubling, and he possesses a seven-pitch repertoire — including three breaking balls that all drop five or more inches more than direct comparables based on velocity and extension.
Although it’s never easy to project how an individual pitcher will age, Fried seems to be in a sweet spot where he isn’t reliant on velocity and yet he can still lose a tick or two without falling into the late-career Hyun Jin Ryu zone.
Fried would also give the Blue Jays a southpaw option, providing opponents with a different look and giving them an advantage in some matchups. It makes sense that they’ve already checked in on him.
Age: 29
Throws: Right
2024 Stats: 10.78 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9 in 162 IP. 3.17 ERA and 3.51 xERA (3.1 fWAR)
Average FanGraphs’ Contract Estimate: 4 years, $88 million ($22M AAV)
Qualifying Offer: No
Why he fits: The case for Fried leans into his year-to-year consistency, while investing in Flaherty requires a belief that 2024’s results reflect his true talent far more than his other recent work.
Between 2020 and 2023, Flaherty dealt with multiple injuries, pitching just 299 innings in four years and producing middle results in that time (4.42 ERA, 4.36 FIP).
Last season his K/9 of 10.78 ranked third among qualified pitchers behind just Tarik Skubal and Sonny Gray and while he posted the lowest walk rate of his career.
Floor Raisers
Trevor Williams
Age: 32
Throws: Right
2024 Statistics: 7.97 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9 in 66.2 IP. 2.03 ERA and 3.13 xERA (2.0 fWAR)
Average FanGraphs’ Contract Estimate: 1.5 years, $15 million ($10 million AAV)
Why he fits: Williams is a soft-tosser with elite command. The veteran is coming off an intriguing season that saw him excel on a per-inning basis, but miss much of the year to a right flexor muscle strain injury.
It’s possible he’ll end up a bit too expensive to be the ideal bottom-of-the-rotation upgrade for Toronto, but he has a touch more upside than the average innings eater. Not only has he produced a solid 4.14 ERA over the past four seasons, he’s also changed his repertoire recently in a way that could help him replicate some of his 2024 success.
The right-hander introduced a sweeper to his arsenal in 2023, but threw it just 2.8 percent of the time. Last season that number bumped up to 21.1 percent, making it his most-used secondary offering.
One new toy doesn’t transform him into a star, but it could just make him a projection beater as a fifth starter.
Another thing Williams has going for him is a track record of providing solid innings out of the bullpen, which could come in handy if he lost a spring training battle to Rodríguez — or fell out of the rotation later in the season.
In 93.2 career relief innings his K/9 is a healthy 9.42 and he’s managed a 3.84 ERA and 3.63 FIP.
Kyle Hart
Age: 31
Throws: Left
2024 Stats (KBO): 10.43 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9 in 157 IP. 2.69 ERA and 3.28 FIP
Average FanGraphs’ Contract Estimate: 2.67 years, $17.9 million ($7.7 million AAV)
Why he fits: Hart’s career MLB ERA of 15.55 hardly inspires confidence, but that came from just 11 innings in 2020. Since then, he’s been honing his craft in the minor leagues and Korea, where he excelled in 2024.
Hart posted excellent strikeout, walk and groundball (60.3%) rates in the KBO and produced the highest inning total of his pro career.
The southpaw is far from a sure thing, thanks in part to a relatively unremarkable 90 mph fastball, but his slider was a strong strikeout pitch in Korea, allowing him to lead the league in Ks last season (182). He could bring a lefty complement to the Blue Jays rotation and compete for its fifth spot.
It’s possible that he’d lose that battle and become a swingman, but that wouldn’t be a disastrous outcome considering what he projects to cost. Finding fifth/sixth starter types externally is tricky, with other teams usually reluctant to part with optionable upper-minor arms — and the type of starters available on minor-league deals tending to be replacement level.
Hart has a good chance to contribute workable innings as a starter without having to inhabit that role full-time to be useful. The southpaw may find a suitor handing him a rotation spot outright elsewhere, but his potential flexibility could be handy if the Blue Jays want to keep their option open with Rodríguez.
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