One Internal Pollster Saw the Primary Results Coming

Politics Editor Bill Scher has been exploring how internal polls commissioned by candidates, taking advantage of a decline in independent polling by mainstream media outlets, have been increasingly shaping media narratives and warping public perceptions. In Maine, internal polls fueled the belief that Graham Platner was impervious to scandal until he suffered one scandal too many, And in Michigan, internal polls helped convince nearly everyone that Abdul El-Sayed would win his primary in a landslide before he eked out a 1-point victory.

Yesterday he informed readers what the polls, internal and independent, were saying about the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary and the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. Unlike Maine and Michigan, these races did not have a flurry of internal polls. Internal polls were published shortly before Election Day on behalf of Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, but not by their respective rivals, Representative Angie Craig and Assemblywoman Francesca Hong.

Of note, the same poll company provided the internals for Flanagan and Crowley: Public Policy Polling.

The shock of the night was the Wisconsin race. The last two independent polls projected Hong, a Democratic Socialists of America member, winning by more than 20 points. But early Wednesday morning, the race was called for Crowley, who led Hong by over 3,000 votes.

What did Crowley’s internal poll find? The topline result was similar to the independent polling, Hong ahead by 18. But Public Policy Polling also provided an alternative scenario, re-asking respondents after hearing unspecified information about the candidates and adjusting the projected voter turnout with more older voters to resemble the 2022 primary turnout. That scenario produced a tie: statistically identical to the actual result. It would appear PPP’s alternative scenario tracked with reality, with late-circulating information about Hong impacting final voting decisions.

Public Policy Polling’s Minnesota internal, conducted on behalf of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association which supports Flanagan, had her up 14 points, six points less than the final result. And much closer to the mark than the one independent outfit that polled the race, SurveyUSA, which had Craig up by 2.

In fact, amidst all of the junk polling this cycle, Public Policy Polling internals have been stunningly good. In the Illinois Senate primary, working for the DLGA which supported Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton, PPP pegged her up by 2, whereas her rival’s internal pollsters showed her losing by at least 10. She won by 9.

In the Texas Senate primary, PPP produced a poll for a political action committee supporting James Talarico which had him up by 6, and he won by 6. In the Iowa Senate primary, PPP did the same for Josh Turek, finding a 21-point lead. His opponent’s published internals had Turek losing by 18. He won by 25.

Finally, in Colorado’s gubernatorial primary, PPP working for political action committee supporting Attorney General Phil Weiser, detected a 9 point lead, while his opponent’s internal had Weiser losing by 7. Weiser won by 13.

The only flaw in PPP’s internal polling this cycle is it tends to lowball their paid client.

Polling has been a serious problem this year, with many polls negatively affecting races by falsely suggesting races are over before the votes are cast. But PPP should take a bow.

Read Bill’s full piece on polling this primary season below.

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