Oil Prices Slip as Trump Announces Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire

TLDR

Oil prices fell on Monday after Trump said Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. Trump also said Russia will supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets right away. Ukraine and Russia have not confirmed the ceasefire, and analysts say doubts may limit the price drop. Middle East attacks, including strikes on Riyadh’s airport and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, kept Brent above $100. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85.

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Oil prices slipped on Monday after US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. Traders also weighed a new diesel supply deal between the US and Moscow.

Brent crude futures fell 11 cents, or 0.11%, to $104.61 a barrel by 0627 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $91.36, down 49 cents, or 0.53%.

Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financial Futures (BZ=F)

Both benchmarks were down more than 1% earlier in the session. Crude also faced some profit-taking after rising nearly 3% last week.

Ceasefire and diesel deal

Trump announced the energy ceasefire on Sunday. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting to see details, and Russia did not comment.

BREAKING: President Trump says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an “energy ceasefire” with immediate effect. pic.twitter.com/HkZrbw1TQ4

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2026

Kyiv and Moscow have not confirmed the agreement. Trump also announced an energy ceasefire in mid-September, which neither side confirmed.

On Friday, Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets. Another 500,000 tons would follow in November, and 1 million tons after that.

ICE gasoil futures fell 3% to $1,436 per metric ton. The International Energy Agency forecasts global daily diesel use at close to 29 million barrels.

Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the announcements eased some immediate supply pressure. He added that questions remain over whether the ceasefire will hold, so the pullback is likely to stay limited.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said members should assess whether more diesel releases are needed. He urged countries that have not delivered their pledged volumes to speed up remaining releases.

Middle East conflict and storm damage

The conflict in the Middle East kept Brent above $100 a barrel. The Houthis claimed a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.

Saudi authorities reported injuries in a new attack on the airport on Sunday. Trump said the US was considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis.

Tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have also been reported this month. The UK Maritime Trade Operations said a drone struck a tanker near Sohar anchorage in Oman, and an unknown projectile damaged another.

Iran said a recent US proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was “insufficient.” Iran has stepped up attacks on shipping there since late September.

Hurricane Isaias made landfall on the US Gulf Coast early on Saturday. Shell, Chevron and BP were working to restore production at their Gulf of Mexico platforms, and more than 60% of regional output was offline last week.

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85. Analysts led by Daan Struyven estimated a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel, and they expect WTI to average $81 in December 2026.

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