NHL Draft lottery to be held May 5, Sharks have best odds at top pick

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Rommie Analytics

NEW YORK — The NHL will hold its draft lottery next Monday with the San Jose Sharks holding the best chance of getting the top pick for the second straight season.

The lottery to determine the top 16 picks in the June draft will be held at the NHL Network’s studio in New Jersey and broadcast on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.

The lottery is conducted in two phases with the first to determine the No. 1 pick and the second to determine the No. 2 pick. Teams can only move up 10 spots in the order, meaning only the bottom 11 teams have a chance at the first pick.

This draft is not considered to be one of the stronger ones in recent years at the top with defenceman Matthew Schaefer and centre Michael Misa of the Ontario Hockey League ranked by the league’s central scouting bureau and Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino as the top two North American skaters available.

The Sharks won the lottery last year and picked Macklin Celebrini first overall. Celebrini had 25 goals and 38 assists in an impressive rookie season but San Jose still finished with the worst record in the NHL.

That gives the Sharks a 25.5 per cent chance of getting the No. 1 pick again, either by winning the lottery or if the teams in the 12th through 16th spots win and can’t move up to No. 1.

Chicago has the second-best odds at 13.5 per cent, followed by Nashville at 11.5 per cent, Philadelphia at 9.5 per cent and Boston at 8.5 per cent. The Blackhawks won the lottery in 2023 and picked Connor Bedard with the first pick.

Here are the full odds for the first pick:

San Jose Sharks (18.5 per cent)
Chicago Blackhawks (13.5 per cent)
Nashville Predators (11.5 per cent)
Philadelphia Flyers (9.5 per cent)
Boston Bruins (8.5 per cent)
Seattle Kraken (7.5 per cent)
Buffalo Sabres (6.5 per cent)
Anaheim Ducks (6 per cent)
Pittsburgh Penguins (5 per cent)
New York Islanders (3.5 per cent)
New York Rangers (3 per cent)
Detroit Red Wings (2.5 per cent)
Columbus Blue Jackets (2 per cent)
Utah Hockey Club (1.5 per cent)
Vancouver Canucks (0.5 per cent)
Calgary Flames (0.5 per cent)

The draft takes place on June 27-28 on Sportsnet.

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