New FBI Data Further Deflate Trump's Claim That Crime Is Rising

Violent crime fell by 3 percent nationwide last year, according to FBI data released on Monday. That includes substantial drops in murder and rape (11.6 percent and 9.4 percent, respectively), along with smaller decreases in aggravated assault (2.8 percent) and robbery (0.3 percent). The FBI is also reporting an overall 2.4 percent drop in property crime, although it says car thefts were up by 12.6 percent.

These numbers further undermine former President Donald Trump's claim that crime is on the rise across the country—a trend that the Republican presidential nominee blames on the Biden administration and, by extension, his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. In particular, Trump's assertion that "homicides are skyrocketing" is plainly inconsistent not only with the FBI's numbers but also with data from several other sources based on various samples of cities.

The Trump campaign argues that the FBI's numbers are misleading. It notes that the percentage of law enforcement agencies reporting data to the FBI fell substantially when the FBI rejiggered its system in 2021. That drop in participation required the FBI to rely more heavily on estimates to account for missing data, magnifying the potential for error. But that situation has been steadily improving, and the FBI says the 2023 numbers are based on data from agencies covering 94.3 percent of the U.S. population, up from 65 percent in 2021. The 2023 coverage rate is similar to the historical norm.

The Trump campaign also notes that the FBI's numbers include only crimes that were reported to police. It argues that the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—which does not cover homicides but asks about other offenses, whether or not they resulted in police reports—paints a more accurate picture.

According to the NVCS, the violent victimization rate fell by 29 percent between 2018 and 2020, the last year of the Trump administration. The rate remained essentially the same in 2021 but jumped by 42 percent in 2022, President Joe Biden's second year in office. Last year, it fell by about 4 percent. Although the change was not statistically significant, it is similar to the drop reported by the FBI.

The property victimization rate, meanwhile, fell by about 13 percent between 2018 and 2020, fell again in 2021, and rose by about 12 percent in 2022. Last year, that rate remained about the same.

"Violent crime hasn't 'dropped,' as the Fake News insists," the Trump campaign says. According to the NCVS, it adds, "violent crime [excluding homicides] is up 37% between 2020 and last year," and "the total number of violent crimes reported last year [again, excluding homicides] is higher than any year under President Trump." It promises that Trump "will END the lawlessness once again."

Although it is doubtful that the president (let alone the vice president) has much influence on crime rates, Trump argues that Harris should be blamed for any increases that occurred during the Biden administration, even if those trends now seem to be abating (a point that Trump is loath to acknowledge). But by the same logic, Trump should be blamed for the huge 29 percent spike in homicides we saw in 2020.

"Kamala has presided over three of the four most murderous years in the last quarter century," the Trump campaign says. "In most cities, murder rates remain higher than pre-pandemic levels." Both of those sentences elide the point that Trump presided over by far the sharpest rise in the homicide rate during the last three decades.

Last year's drop in homicides was historically large, and preliminary data suggest we will see an even bigger reduction in 2024. Based on a sample of 277 cities, AH Datalytics reports that murders are down by 17.6 percent so far this year.

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