Is Altcoin Season Coming? Two Top Indicators Can’t Agree

The Glassnode reading is real, but the mechanism behind it is the opposite of what the label usually implies. Altcoin season normally means alts are outperforming Bitcoin because money is rushing into them.

That might not be what’s happening now. Alts have been grinding lower for close to two years, and what’s changed is that they’ve stabilized while Bitcoin draws down hard. Alts are “winning” the relative-performance race by losing less, not by gaining more. Glassnode itself flags this, noting the BTC side is doing most of the work. The signal is picking up Bitcoin weakness, not altcoin strength.

Two Signals, Two Definitions

The clearest way to understand the gap is to see what each tool actually measures. Think of Glassnode as the sprinter: it tracks momentum and relative direction over a shorter window. If Bitcoin drops 10% and alts drop 2%, alts “win,” even though everyone lost money. That’s a signal the bleeding has slowed, not that a rally has started.

CoinMarketCap is the heavy lifter. Its Altcoin Season Index requires 75% of the top 100 coins, excluding stablecoins and wrapped assets, to actually outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90 days before it calls altcoin season. It doesn’t care that alts are losing less; it cares whether they’re genuinely beating BTC. Right now it reads 45 out of 100, still in Bitcoin-season territory, nowhere near the 75 needed to flip. Glassnode is telling you the exits have cleared. CoinMarketCap is telling you the party hasn’t started.

Grounding the 45 in Context

A single index number means little without its range, so here’s the context that anchors it. Over the past year, CoinMarketCap’s index hit 78 on September 20, 2025, a genuine altcoin season, and bottomed at 14 on December 19, 2025, deep Bitcoin season. Today’s 45 sits in the lower half of that band, closer to the December trough than the September peak. The recent path tells the same story of a market stuck in place: 39 a month ago, 48 last week, 45 today, drifting just under the 50 line that would even signal a neutral market, let alone the 75 that defines a rotation.

A Market Caught In Between

Put the two signals together and they describe a market in transition, not confirmation. After roughly two years of steady downward pressure, altcoin sellers are largely exhausted. There’s almost no one left eager to dump these assets at these levels, which is why the Glassnode signal is spiking: the floor has stopped falling out from under them. But removing sellers is only half of what a real altcoin season needs. The other half, buyers arriving in volume to bid prices up, simply hasn’t shown up yet. One side of the equation has resolved; the other is still missing.

This is also why “relative strength” deserves a skeptical eye. Losing less than Bitcoin during a Bitcoin drawdown is not the same as a bull market for alts. It can feel like strength on a chart while doing nothing for an actual portfolio.

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The Bottom Line

So, is this altcoin season? Based on the only definition that tracks real money moving, it doesn’t look this way, not yet. The honest read might be that the market is loading the conditions without firing the catalyst. A stable floor with exhausted sellers is exactly the kind of base that has preceded past rotations, but a base is not a breakout, and bases can sit dormant for a long time.

The signal worth waiting for isn’t a higher Glassnode number, which can keep rising purely on Bitcoin’s weakness. It’s CoinMarketCap’s index climbing through 50 and toward 75 on the back of alts actually rising, the moment relative survival turns into absolute demand. Until that flips, the smarter posture could be patience over conviction.

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