How Trump Tariffs Are Transforming Canadian Politics: Insights from the Election

When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down in early January after enduring considerable pressure, his approval rating plummeted from a high of 65% in September 2016 to just 22%.

As 2024 drew to a close, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, often likened to a “Trump Lite,” emerged as the frontrunner for the upcoming general election, garnering the support of 45% of Canadians. Meanwhile, voters were primarily concerned with economic issues: the affordability of everyday items, inflation and interest rates, and access to affordable housing.

Pierre Poilievre at a news conference in Ottawa in December 2024. Photograph: Justin Tang/AP

The dynamics shifted in the initial weeks of Donald Trump’s second term, at least temporarily. A recent survey indicated that “dealing with US President Trump” has become the foremost issue shaping Canadian electoral preferences, surpassing economic concerns.

Polls in Canada reveal a significant political shift: Poilievre’s anticipated landslide victory seems to have evaporated. While his party remains favored to win and maintains support above its levels from 2019 and 2021, Poilievre’s association with MAGA politics has propelled the center-left Liberals to close the gap with the Conservatives.

Canadian opinion polls

“The tariffs enforced by Trump are transforming our political landscape,” remarked Richard Nantel, a 65-year-old resident of Montreal, Quebec.

“A pro-Trump Conservative party was expected to win the forthcoming federal election, but now they are struggling to salvage what once seemed a certain victory. It’s become less likely that the Conservatives will secure the election.”

Scott Duncan, 54, a management consultant, commented: “Since Trump began suggesting Canada could become the 51st state, many Canadians I know have shifted their political alignment.” Duncan, hailing from Quebec—a province with a resurgent separatist movement—observed, “Individuals like my mom’s partner, who were previously Trump supporters, have changed their stance. The display of fierce Canadian nationalism has genuinely surprised me.”

“Those who used to express support for Trump—colleagues at work—are now more reserved,” noted Nicholas Mickelsen, a 35-year-old structural firefighter from Edmonton, Alberta’s capital, which has long been seen as a Conservative stronghold and the upbringing of the newly appointed Prime Minister, Mark Carney.

Canadians protesting outside the US consulate general in Montreal, Quebec last week. Photograph: Vouli/Guardian Community

Nantel, Duncan, and Mickelsen were among numerous Canadians who shared with the Guardian their ongoing political and personal struggles regarding the US-Canadian trade conflict and the political stalemate.

Markets have reacted with increasing anxiety to the retaliatory tariffs and aggressive rhetoric from both North American neighbors, leading many Canadians to brace for a recession while worrying about their jobs and investments.

Concerns have grown regarding China’s recent imposition of severe retaliatory tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural products, yet the primary concern remains Trump.

“Family and friends across the political spectrum have united to confront Trump,” said Andrea, 59, a Toronto teacher.

Andrea explained that long-time supporters of the Tories and the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) or Green Party had recently shifted their allegiance to the Liberal Party, rallying behind Carney for the next election.

“Trudeau’s legacy is rapidly evolving,” she noted, highlighting the former prime minister’s recent surge in popularity.

Fiona Mackey, 63, a retiree from Comox, British Columbia, had initially intended to support the leftist NDP until Carney entered the race.

“I joined the Liberal Party to back Carney in replacing Trudeau, believing he would be the most suited to guide us through tariff threats, Trump, and global stability,” she stated.

“Many Canadians are still unfamiliar with him, as he was ‘recruited’ by the Bank of England. I appreciate his views on the EU and would support Canada joining.”

Mackey joined others in feeling that Poilievre and the Conservatives had merely capitalized on Trudeau’s unpopularity and would not confront Trump effectively.

“The rising anti-Trump sentiment,” she observed, had mobilized support for controversial figures like Doug Ford, the divisive right-wing populist premier of Ontario, who recently secured a third term after pledging to “fight against Donald Trump.” Mackey noted his popularity stemmed from understanding against the US.

Fiona and Nick Mackey have chosen to support Mark Carney’s Liberals due to Trump’s threats. Photograph: Fiona/Guardian Community

“It’s a political response to an immediate threat; he has put himself on the line for Canada. My west coast NDP-leaning friends appreciate his current actions.”

Katie, a mother of three from Ontario in her 40s, observed that while some people in her community remain sympathetic to Trump, others are quickly reverting to their political comfort zone, which traditionally favors a Liberal majority.

A recording of Ford acknowledging to caucus and supporters that he had been a Trump backer until the trade war commenced seemed indicative of a larger trend among right-wing voters in Canada, Katie remarked.

Many left-leaning Canadians expressed relief that Trump has deflated some Conservative momentum; however, several individuals cautioned that strong anti-Trump feelings might allow politicians to overlook pressing issues and assist beleaguered politicians—like Ford and Trudeau—regain favor.

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The Ontario Premier Doug Ford, wearing a ‘Canada is not for sale’ hat at a leaders’ meeting in Ottawa in January. Photograph: Blair Gable/Reuters

“[Doug Ford] is taking a bold stance against Trump and has captured public attention,” stated Christina, a web design consultant in her 40s from Ottawa. People seem to have overlooked his education cuts and involvement in a significant property development scandal, she added.

Like many others, she believed Ford had seized the moment to call a regional election in a time of collective shock and unity for his own gain, with speculation that Carney may pursue a similar strategy to take advantage of the anti-Trump sentiment by calling an early election.

While many express renewed hope regarding the Liberals’ prospects for victory, others caution that there remains a considerable segment of Canadians still supportive of Trump’s overall vision.

Stephen McIntyre, a retiree residing on a sparsely populated island in British Columbia, lamented the prevalence of “so-called Conservatives who embrace MAGA values and maintain a following,” while the “true Conservatives” have “long ago lost their political voice.”

“The specter of a Trump-sympathetic Conservative national government looms over the next election,” warned Colin Martin, a university instructor from Calgary, Alberta.

“Alberta’s current administration aligns more closely—both functionally and ideologically—with Trump’s administration than with our national governance, casting a significant shadow here.”

Alberta, the leading region for Canada’s oil and gas sector, exports significantly to the US. A survey indicated that 29% of Albertans would have voted for Trump, against 21% of Canadians. The Alberta Premier, Danielle Smith, who accepted Trump’s invitation to Mar-a-Lago in January, has consistently warned of the risks of tariff retaliation, sharply contrasting with other Canadian leaders.

Kentucky bourbon and rye whiskey available at Edmonton airport in Alberta. Photograph: Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

“Donald Trump’s statements implying that Canada could become the 51st state have sparked the formation of advocacy groups for merging with America,” stated John Bourassa, 42, from Vancouver. “Conversations are underway about electoral boundary adjustments, contemplating if Canada should be designated as a territory or a state.”

Trevor*, a farmer from Saskatchewan who stands to be impacted by the 100% Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola oil, mentioned that Trump’s presidency had revitalized his confidence in the discernment of the average voter.

“Personally, I favor joining the US, although I’m quite certain that isn’t the majority opinion. A shared currency would be far less contentious.”

“I eagerly await Poilievre’s ascent to PM and his adoption of Trump-inspired policies to streamline government expenditures and reduce waste,” he asserted, expressing hope that such moves would “alleviate the national deficit.” “I am confident that Poilievre and the Conservatives will secure a substantial majority in my riding; I haven’t spoken to anyone who’s changed their mind.”

While the tariffs may induce a “temporary financial setback,” he believed a long-term advantage was “entirely plausible.”

Trevor criticized the “ongoing aggressiveness from Trudeau, Doug Ford, and, understandably, Carney,” raising concerns that external markets, political opposition, and an “overwhelmingly hostile press, globally,” could derail Trump’s objectives for the US and the West.

He suggested that Poilievre should maintain his “already effective” critique of the escalating housing costs and supply shortages in Canada, and emphasized the importance not to distance himself from Trump or undermine his standing with the US president.

While many respondents emphasized that the Canadian identity has often been a counterpoint to Trump and the US culture, numerous individuals shared experiences of rifts with American relatives, friends, and colleagues since Trump’s second term began, and expressed a growing sense of hostility towards the US.

Kelly Ann Grimaldi, 39, from Welland, Ontario, recounted that her family in Canada and Italy had ceased communication with most of their American relatives, asserting that even those who did not support Trump were unable to comprehend why Canadians would prefer not to be integrated into America. “I consider the US our adversary,” she said.

Sarah from Montreal. Photograph: Sarah/Guardian Community

“I find myself feeling a lot of anger towards Americans I interact with, even though I recognize that many of them will bear the brunt of this administration’s policies,” remarked Sarah, 26, a retail employee from Montreal. She expressed skepticism regarding assurances from Americans that they oppose Trump, feeling such statements are “self-serving” in the absence of concrete actions to assist their Canadian neighbors.

Pamela, a middle-aged professional from Ontario, indicated that she had abstained from voting in the last general election because she believed things were “functioning well enough in Canada.”

“This time, I’m determined to cast my vote based on who can best address the challenges posed by Donald Trump. I anticipate an extraordinary voter turnout, as many Canadians recognize that our country and way of life are in jeopardy.”

*Name changed