How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact Your Grocery Bill, from Avocados to Frozen Fish

The tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on a variety of goods from Canada and Mexico are expected to go into effect on April 2. This will be followed by additional import taxes on other products and countries shortly thereafter. As a result, shoppers may start noticing price increases at grocery stores in a matter of weeks, particularly for items that aren’t very shelf-stable.

Imports are becoming a larger component of the fresh produce available in the United States, with approximately 60% of fruits and 40% of vegetables coming from abroad, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for 2023. Trump has imposed tariffs that are 20% higher on China compared to existing rates. Together, China, Mexico, and Canada account for over 75% of the vegetable imports in America.

An analysis by NBC News of U.S. Census Bureau data suggests that these tariffs will affect various grocery staples, ranging from berries to avocados to potatoes. The most impacted products will primarily be those sourced from Mexico, Canada, or China.

For example, USDA data indicates that the U.S. imports all of its fresh mangoes and limes. Mexico is responsible for about 60% of the guavas and mangoes sold in the U.S., as well as roughly 72% of lemons and limes. Moreover, a significant portion of avocados (91.9%) and raspberries (91.4%) are imported, with over 90% of these imports coming from Mexico.

Additionally, frozen fish filets from China, along with lobster and pork from Canada, may also face significant impacts, according to census data.

While larger grocery chains might manage to absorb these increased costs or adjust their supply chains, smaller stores may find it more challenging, noted Jenny Zegler, director of food and drink at market research firm Mintel. She highlighted that categories such as protein, produce, and dairy sourced from China, Canada, and Mexico are expected to see price increases.

Zegler observed that even affluent consumers have been adapting their shopping habits to cope with inflation, a trend that began before Trump assumed office again. Many are turning to budget-friendly retailers like Aldi or Walmart and diversifying their shopping across their regular grocery store, discount stores, and online delivery services.

A Mintel report from last year revealed that 26% of U.S. grocery shoppers had recently changed their primary grocery store, with 54% of adults making trade-offs regarding their food and beverage choices due to rising prices. The implementation of tariffs would only add to this burden.

“It’s another price pressure at a pivotal moment for consumers,” Zegler remarked. “We can tighten our grocery budgets, but we can’t eliminate grocery shopping altogether.”

Consumers seeking alternatives to mitigate the impact of tariffs might consider switching to different products, like opting for canned fruit instead of fresh. Zegler also suggested looking for local options at farmers markets, where prices for certain items may rival those of imported goods, and exploring generic brands. Some households might decide to forgo specific ingredients entirely if prices surge and remain high.

“We do exhibit resilience as consumers, so perhaps it’s about being more mindful,” she stated. “Being open to changing suppliers or product formats could lead to discovering something new.”