How Trump’s Crackdown Is Significantly Reducing Migration

Illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have reached their lowest levels in decades. Migrant shelters that were once bustling are now empty. Instead of heading north, many individuals stranded in Mexico are beginning to return home in greater numbers.

The situation at the border is nearly unrecognizable compared to just a couple of years ago, when scenes of chaos depicted hundreds of thousands of people from across the globe crossing into the United States each month.

President Joseph R. Biden Jr., challenged by a wave of public discontent during the 2024 election campaign, imposed stricter measures on asylum seekers and urged Mexico to maintain a tighter grip on migrant flows. By the end of his administration, illegal crossings had significantly decreased, reaching the lowest figures during his tenure.

Now, Mr. Trump has further tightened the inflow of migrants, enforcing a comprehensive alteration in U.S. immigration policy. Many critics, particularly from the left, have deemed these approaches politically unappealing, legally questionable, and ultimately ineffective, as they do not address the fundamental causes of migration.

“The entire migration paradigm is changing,” stated Eunice Rendón, coordinator of Migrant Agenda, a coalition comprised of Mexican advocacy groups. Referencing Mr. Trump’s assortment of policies and the threats directed at migrants, she remarked, “Families are in fear.”

Mr. Trump is implementing several stringent strategies concurrently: indefinitely suspending asylum for those attempting to seek refuge in the U.S. across the southern border; deploying military personnel to track down and intimidate border crossers; making public announcements about deportation flights where migrants are sent back home in restraints; and pressuring Latin American governments, like Mexico’s, to take stronger actions to limit migration.

This new strategy is producing striking statistics.

In February, the U.S. Border Patrol reported the apprehension of 8,347 individuals attempting to illegally cross the border, a substantial decrease from the record high of over 225,000 apprehensions in December 2023.

These figures had already been in sharp decline since the Biden administration introduced its immigration restrictions the previous year. In December, the last full month of Mr. Biden’s presidency, the Border Patrol apprehended 47,330 migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The 1,527 migrants a day average in December marked the lowest daily rate of any month during Biden’s presidency, though it still represented five times the amount recorded in February, the first full month following Mr. Trump’s inauguration.

If this downward trend continues over a full year, migrant apprehensions in the United States could drop to levels not witnessed since around 1967, according to Adam Isacson, a migration expert at the Washington Office on Latin America.

There are indications that figures are decreasing further south in the region as well. The number of individuals attempting to reach the U.S. through the Darién Gap — a treacherous land bridge linking South America and Central America, which serves as an indicator of potential future migration pressure at the U.S.-Mexico border — fell to 408 in February, down from over 37,000 in the same month the prior year, as reported by Panama’s Immigration Institute.

This shift is being celebrated by advocates who have long called for stricter immigration controls.

Under Mr. Biden’s leadership, “the White House fostered a narrative of helplessness regarding immigration,” remarked Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II, the former acting deputy Homeland Security secretary during the first Trump administration.

“Securing the border is straightforward if there’s a genuine commitment to do so,” stated Mr. Cuccinelli, a notable advocate for strict immigration policies. “During the first Trump administration, he lacked the will to secure it,” he contended. “But that is not the case now.”

Mr. Trump’s tougher stance on migration can be seen as an extension of Mr. Biden’s late-term actions. Biden initially promoted less restrictive policies that led to a spike in migrant numbers during his first three years. Yet as frustrations mounted over this surge, he imposed a ban on asylum claims for those who crossed illegally and pressured both the Mexican and Panamanian governments to do more in restricting migrant movement, leaving his successor with a relatively calm situation at the border.

The political climate in the United States has also evolved. Leaders who once promoted their regions as sanctuaries for migrants are beginning to decrease their resistance to Mr. Trump’s policies. Some Democratic governors are even spotlighting opportunities for collaboration on migration enforcement.

Upon assuming office in January, Mr. Trump quickly moved forward with his anti-immigration strategies. These included utilizing the U.S. military facility in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to detain migrants; sending out online messages to mock and threaten potential migrants; and pledging to rescind visas for foreign officials believed to be aiding illegal immigration into the United States.

However, caution is warranted. A similar decrease in migration occurred at the beginning of Mr. Trump’s first term, although not as steep as the current decline, and it ultimately proved fleeting. Migration experts caution that sanctions and other measures against Venezuela and Cuba—two significant sources of migration—could exacerbate economic conditions in those countries, potentially catalyzing a new wave of emigration.

Furthermore, the Trump administration’s reliance on tariffs has impacted larger economies in the region, which might heighten economic challenges for impoverished families, a primary driver of migration. Economists warn that the uncertainty surrounding these tariffs could have already led Mexico into a recession.

Nevertheless, recent developments in Mexico indicate a shift in migration dynamics.

On a recent morning, numerous migrants were seen waiting in line under the sweltering sun outside Mexico City’s refugee agency, COMAR.

Many had been waiting since early dawn, while others camped out in front of the building, sleeping on sidewalks or dirt roads, all in hopes of securing an appointment to commence their asylum proceedings.

“Clearly, staying here was not our intention,” stated Peter Martínez, a migrant from Cuba, whose asylum appointment in the U.S. was canceled in January.

When asked if he considered returning to Cuba given the difficulties, he replied, “Mexico can be perilous and challenging, but it is still preferable to going back to my home country.”

Many migrants like Mr. Martínez find themselves stranded in Mexico, contemplating their next steps regarding crossing into the U.S. Some are considering settling in Mexico, while others strive to find their way back home.

According to reports from Reuters, the International Organization for Migration indicated that the number of migrants in Mexico seeking assistance to return to their home countries rose to 2,862 in January and February.

A survey conducted in January by the International Rescue Committee involving over 600 migrants revealed that 44 percent of those who initially sought to reach the United States now preferred to remain in Mexico.

“When one door closes, another window opens,” remarked Rafael Velasquez García, the former head of the International Rescue Committee’s office in Mexico.

This choice comes with challenges, he acknowledged, as migrants face considerable barriers in accessing employment opportunities.

In other countries within the region, migrants from Venezuela and elsewhere are granted humanitarian visas that allow them to seek employment. In contrast, in Mexico, migrants can only apply for asylum, a process that can be prolonged.

All of this unfolds in anticipation of Mr. Trump implementing more stringent measures, such as his commitment to significantly increase mass deportations. He is also set to invoke a little-known American law, the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, to expedite the removal of undocumented immigrants while offering them minimal to no due process.

Experts in migration assert that the current crackdown is most comparable to the 1950s, associated with the outcry over an influx of Mexican laborers, which led to “Operation Wetback,” a brief military-style operation aimed at deporting over one million Mexican immigrants, deriving its name from a derogatory term used for Mexican border crossers.

“To witness anything like this, you would have to trace back to the Eisenhower administration,” stated Mr. Isacson, the migration expert.