How to Measure True Bitcoin Exposure in Stocks Like MSTR

He argued that investors may be misled by traditional metrics and introduced a more refined approach he calls Volatility Per BTC Share (VPBS).

The Problem With “BTC Per Share”

According to Park, BPS—calculated as total BTC held divided by total outstanding shares—is often misapplied when analyzing companies like MicroStrategy. Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which are simple wrappers around BTC holdings, corporations can use operating leverage—such as issuing debt—to increase BTC on their balance sheet without diluting shareholders.

For example, if MSTR raises $500 million in debt to buy more BTC, the BTC numerator in the BPS ratio increases, while the denominator (shares outstanding) remains unchanged. This makes the company appear more BTC-rich per share than it truly is, creating what Park calls “financial alchemy.” While the BPS goes up, so does the company’s financial risk, which is not visible in the metric alone.

Why “BTC Yield” Is Misleading

Park also criticizes the concept of “BTC Yield”—used to describe the increase in BTC held per share over time. He compares it to GDP growth rate: just as a country’s 5% GDP growth doesn’t tell you the GDP per capita, BTC Yield doesn’t show you how much BTC per share was truly added. Moreover, it’s often not annualized and doesn’t reflect real, cash-generating returns.

Instead, Park argues investors should care about how much BTC was actually added per share, not just the rate of change.

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Introducing “True Yield”

To give investors a more accurate perspective, Park proposes a simple metric:

True Yield = % Change in BTC ÷ % Change in Shares Outstanding

This formula corrects for financial engineering tricks by capturing real BTC accumulation relative to shareholder dilution. It helps investors better assess BTC-exposed companies like MSTR and SMLR (Semler Scientific), especially during aggressive capital maneuvers.

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Conclusion

Jeff Park’s framework offers a smarter way to gauge BTC exposure in equities and investment products. By shifting from surface-level ratios to holistic financial modeling, investors can avoid being misled by headline metrics and instead focus on true BTC value creation per share.

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