Gas Is Almost $4 a Gallon — and It Could Get Much Worse

TLDR

National average gas price hit $3.91 per gallon, highest since 2022, with $4 expected soon Oil prices are up more than 40% since the Iran war began Diesel has surged roughly 38% in a month, topping $5 per gallon for the first time in four years Gas prices have risen more than 30% in 20 days — the largest such gain since at least 2000 Israel struck an Iranian gas facility; Iran retaliated, keeping oil markets in volatile “fast market” trading

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Gas prices are climbing fast as fighting in the Middle East pushes oil higher. The national average hit $3.91 per gallon on Friday, its highest level since 2022, according to AAA data.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said $4 per gallon is looking like a strong possibility in the coming days.

Gas prices have risen more than 30% since the war with Iran began. That is the largest 20-day gain since at least January 2000, according to a Dow Jones Market Data analysis of Oil Price Information Service data.

RBOB Gasoline May 26 (RB=F)

As of Thursday, drivers were paying $3.88 per gallon on average. Prices have risen $0.98 from just one month ago.

Oil prices are now more than 40% higher than when the Iran conflict started. The switch to more expensive summer driving fuel blends is adding further pressure at the pump.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $95 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude topped $103 per barrel.

Diesel and Trucking Under Pressure

Diesel has surged roughly 38% in one month, passing $5 per gallon to reach a four-year high. That matters because around 70% of goods in the United States are moved by truck.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Wednesday that higher energy prices risk feeding into broader inflation. “There’s just lots of ways that oil and derivatives of oil get into the production and transportation of many, many things,” Powell said.

President Trump announced a temporary waiver of the Jones Act on Wednesday, allowing non-US ships to deliver goods to parts of the country. De Haan said this will have a minimal effect on fuel prices but may help ease supply chain options.

What Is Driving the Oil Spike

The latest surge followed Israel striking a major natural gas processing facility in southwestern Iran. Tehran responded by targeting energy infrastructure across the region.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, said the escalation is keeping crude in a “fast market” type of trade.

Traders are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route where flows have slowed sharply.

RBC Capital Markets estimates oil could surpass $128 per barrel — the level hit after Russia invaded Ukraine — if the conflict continues for another three to four weeks.

If the war lasts several months, analysts say prices could exceed the 2008 record of $146 per barrel.

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