“We will unleash overwhelming lethal force.” This statement by US President Donald Trump refers to a new campaign of airstrikes he initiated against the Houthis in Yemen. This Iran-backed militia has been a significant disruptor of international shipping in the Red Sea since October 2023 and has persisted in its activities despite prior US and allied airstrikes. How is the second Trump administration conducting its most extensive military operation to date? What implications will this have for the region? And what does it reveal about Trump’s stance towards Iran? Our specialists offer their insights.
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Daniel E. Mouton: The US will now need to escalate diplomacy and its resources
Emily Milliken: Anticipate Houthi retaliation against US targets in the region
Danny Citrinowicz: A significant shift in strategy to address the Houthis
Osamah Al Rawhani: The bombings could prolong the suffering of Yemenis, which the Houthis may exploit to garner support
Alex Plitsas: The airstrikes on Saturday are likely just the beginning
Andrew Borene: A broader allied strategy will be necessary
Thomas S. Warrick: A few days of strikes alone will not end Houthi aggressions
The US will now need to escalate diplomacy and its resources
From March 2015 to March 2022, the Saudi-led coalition executed between 25,054 and 75,135 airstrike sorties against the Houthi movement in Yemen. Utilizing modern US and European aircraft, the coalition implemented precision-guided munitions and received indirect military backing from the US. Despite seven years of extensive airstrikes throughout Houthi-dominated areas, the Houthis maintained their ability to conduct counterattacks on vital Saudi infrastructure. Even with the substantial amount of firepower the coalition employed, the Houthis showed a remarkable capacity to escalate their own activities over time.
Significantly, major Houthi offensives against Saudi targets and associated coalition airstrikes ceased following a truce in March 2022. While a formal ceasefire has yet to be established, the Saudis have shown a preference for de-escalation to prevent the Houthis from targeting critical infrastructure, including the NEOM project. This explains the caution expressed by Saudi Arabia as the US and UK began their recent airstrikes against the Houthis in 2024. The Houthis have shown a resilience similar to that displayed during the Saudi-led campaign.
In context of the new strikes on the Houthis, Trump’s declaration, if enacted, positions the US towards a more assertive role in the region. He remarked that he “ordered the United States Military to launch decisive and powerful action against Houthi terrorists in Yemen,” and warned that failure to halt Houthi assaults would result in “HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NOTHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!”
Considering the Houthis’ long-standing history of resistance against the Yemeni government they initially overthrew, and subsequently against the Saudi-led coalition, the latest series of airstrikes is unlikely to deter them. With support not only from Iran but also from supply networks in China and Russia, the United States will need to deploy more than just Saturday’s airstrikes to make a substantive impact.
These additional efforts will necessitate diplomatic outreach to Russia and China, augmented maritime capabilities to disrupt Houthi resupply chains, and sustained pressure on Iran. Furthermore, there may be a need to bolster defenses for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which have been previous targets for the Houthis. The scale of these operations, in terms of military assets and international collaboration, will be considerable. The seriousness of the US commitment to go beyond mere airstrikes will soon reveal itself in the coming days and weeks, sending a clear message of US resolve to both Iran and the wider region.
—Daniel E. Mouton is a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. He served on the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023 as the director for defense and political-military policy for the Middle East and North Africa for Coordinator Brett McGurk.
Anticipate Houthi retaliation against US targets in the region
The most recent US airstrikes have focused on Houthi strongholds, believed to be key locations for their leadership and military infrastructure. These operations are in line with previous assertions from Trump and his administration advocating for a harsher approach towards the group.
While targeting Houthi bases, leaders, and missile defense systems may temporarily hinder their operations, the Houthis have historically demonstrated resilience, continuing to pose a threat even after sustained attacks by both the Saudi-led coalition and recent US and UK operations. Moving forward, it is probable that they will launch retaliatory strikes, potentially targeting the USS Truman strike group in the Red Sea or US bases in the region, aiming to assert their dominance to the Yemeni populace, their Iranian supporters, and the international community.
The group could also escalate ground operations in Marib, the last significant government stronghold in Yemen, which is crucial for oil and gas resources, or target essential Saudi infrastructure to compel the Riyadh government into a position of vulnerability ahead of any peace negotiations.
—Emily Milliken is the associate director of media and communications for the N7 Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs.
A significant shift in strategy to address the Houthis
The strikes conducted by US Central Command, marking the initiation of a targeted campaign against the Houthis, represent a significant deviation in US policy toward the Yemeni terrorist organization.
The US military has commenced targeted operations against Houthi leadership and weapons production sites in Yemen.
These strikes underline the US administration’s commitment to prevent the Houthis from interfering with maritime navigation in the Red Sea and send a critical signal to US allies in the region about Washington’s determination to confront the Houthis seriously.
For this campaign to be truly effective, it needs to be sustained over time while degrading the Houthis’ command and control capabilities and their capacity to manufacture and deploy missiles and drones. It must also block Iranian support for the Houthis’ military buildup, employing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who are well-versed in the complexities of the Yemeni conflict.
Ultimately, this campaign should aim for the displacement of the Houthi regime, significantly undermining Iran’s foothold in this strategic area and curbing its ability to pose threats to Saudi Arabia.
Given the prevailing high tensions, these attacks—especially in the event that the US suspects Iranian involvement—could also edge Tehran and Washington closer to conflict.
—Danny Citrinowicz is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and a member of the Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project working group.
The bombings could prolong the suffering of Yemenis, which the Houthis may exploit to garner support
The recent bombing campaigns in Sana’a and other parts of Yemen signify yet another escalation in the conflict with the Houthis. While aimed at degrading the group’s military capacity, these strikes are a direct response to ongoing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and broader regional threats. Unlike prior airstrikes, these operations explicitly target Houthi leadership.
Although the immediate impact of these operations may not be apparent, they convey a strong message of deterrence from the US to Houthi leadership. Nonetheless, the Houthis are likely to respond, suggesting that the policy of deterrence could take time to yield results.
While focusing on military installations and assets may drain Houthi resources, the group has continually shown the ability to adapt and bounce back.
Moreover, these airstrikes significantly affect civilians, as territories controlled by the Houthis encompass over 60% of Yemen’s population. This can create fear and breeding resentment towards the US from citizens not aligned with the Houthis. The widespread destruction and potential civilian casualties are likely to incite outrage, which the Houthis can leverage to increase their support base. Without a comprehensive strategy to disrupt arms and materials smuggling from Iran and to address the political and economic factors fueling the Houthis, this week’s airstrikes may exacerbate the plight of Yemenis.
—Osamah Al Rawhani is a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and the executive director for policy and partnerships at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies.
Saturday’s airstrikes are likely just the beginning
Since late 2023, the United States, in conjunction with coalition partners, has executed repeated strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, aiming to mitigate the increasing aggression from the Iran-backed group. The Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have inflicted severe economic damage, disrupting vital trade routes and significantly reducing traffic through the Suez Canal, a key artery for global commerce. Their operations, which they justify as solidarity with the Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas conflict, have necessitated shipping firms to reroute and incur higher costs and delays.
In addition to civilian vessels, the Houthis have undertaken unprecedented drone and missile strikes against US naval vessels, along with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Israel. Despite over a year of US-led airstrikes, these attempts have failed to deter the Houthis, who have effectively utilized the conflict to strengthen their standing both domestically and regionally. In early 2025, they threatened a renewal of attacks on Red Sea shipping, underscoring their resilience.
The Houthis’ persistence can be attributed to their strategic distribution of weapons across Yemen’s challenging terrain, which complicates targeting efforts. Additionally, a lack of actionable intelligence has hindered coalition strikes, despite comprehensive intelligence-gathering over months. The group’s agility—hiding assets and leveraging Iranian support—has made sustained suppression challenging.
The extensive US airstrikes executed on Saturday likely result from months of intricate intelligence operations and will probably represent just the first round of a series of actions necessary to halt assaults on international shipping and protect US interests in the region.
—Alex Plitsas is a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the head of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project, and a former chief of sensitive activities for special operations and combating terrorism in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
A broader allied strategy will be necessary
Counterterrorism can serve as a potent unifying factor. Amid challenges to military alliances elsewhere, this may be a domain where the United States, European nations, Israel’s allies, and a Saudi-led Arab coalition can all find common ground on needed action. Each party has vested interests in combating the terrorist organization and diminishing Iran’s longstanding role as a primary state sponsor of terrorism.
Historical precedent suggests that, without a more comprehensive joint strategy addressing the Houthi-Iran nexus, airstrikes alone will not suffice to dislodge the Houthis from Yemen or restore stability to one of the world’s most crucial trade passages. Grasping the historical context behind these tensions is essential for understanding the current situation and possible future developments.
Since 2015, the Houthis, an armed political and religious movement, have dominated swathes of western Yemen. Despite years of airstrikes and Saudi-led ground offensives, complemented by targeted US and UK attacks in reaction to assaults on commercial shipping last year, the Houthis remain resilient. Airstrikes alone have failed to uproot them, as they have adapted employing asymmetric tactics, reinforcing defenses, and, most importantly, maintaining robust backing from Iran.
This Iranian support is fundamental to their operations. The Houthis align themselves within Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” alongside groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Their capability to sustain battlefield resilience and accurately target commercial shipping would be unattainable without direct Iranian arms, training, and intelligence.
The first Trump administration exhibited a readiness to aggressively confront Iran’s most direct proxies, even targeting Iranian military leadership. This precedent may be relevant as the United States responds once more to Houthi assaults on Red Sea shipping that have hindered a vital trade route responsible for 15% of global commerce, forcing corporations to reroute around Africa, driving up costs and triggering economic repercussions worldwide.
—Andrew Borene is a member of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project and a former senior official in the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
A few days of strikes alone will not end Houthi attacks
Most Americans have come to understand that the Trump administration is not patient, but this week the Houthis received a clear reminder of Trump’s impatience. Observers had long noted that the Biden administration’s restrained strikes since the Houthis resumed attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea had failed to deter them from continuing their strikes as they saw fit.
Now, the Trump administration has opted to escalate its attacks in hopes that a more painful response will halt the Houthi aggressions. The primary risk for both the US and the Houthis is that no level of destruction short of targeting both Houthi leadership and military capabilities may achieve the Trump administration’s objectives. A limited window of strikes will likely not suffice to conclude the Houthi assaults—unless the Trump administration is ready for a broader approach.
—Thomas S. Warrick is a nonresident senior fellow in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the US Department of Homeland Security.
Further reading
Image: Armed Houthis carry guns during a pro-Palestine protest in Sana’a on March 11, 2025. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen’s Houthi movement, has warned that his group will resume naval assaults on Israel unless the blockade preventing aid from reaching the Gaza Strip is lifted. March 11 marks the final day of the deadline set by al-Houthi for Israel to permit the entry of humanitarian assistance. Osamah Yahya/dpa via Reuters Connect
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