TLDR
Over $3.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, with Bitcoin accounting for $2.9 billion and Ethereum for $617.6 million Bitcoin’s max pain point is $106,500 while Ethereum’s sits at $2,650, both above current trading prices Ethereum shows strong upside flows heading into expiry despite bearish sentiment from traders buying put options for protection Ethereum’s 60-day MVRV ratio has reached 8.26%, signaling profit-taking risk among short-term holders Technical indicators suggest Ethereum could face downward pressure with key support at $2,410Today marks a major event in crypto markets as over $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options reach expiration. Ethereum accounts for $617.6 million of this total through 246,849 expiring contracts.

The expiring Ethereum options show a put-to-call ratio of 1.14, indicating more traders are betting on price drops than increases. This ratio above 1.0 suggests market participants are protecting against downside moves.
Ethereum’s maximum pain point sits at $2,650, well above the current trading price of around $2,515. The max pain theory suggests prices often move toward strike prices where the most options expire worthless.

Market makers typically benefit when options expire without value, as they collect premiums without paying out. This creates incentive for price manipulation toward max pain levels.
Despite the bearish positioning, analysts note strong upside flows for Ethereum heading into today’s expiry. Deribit analysts question whether traders will continue chasing these flows after Friday’s expiration.
The options market shows traders are divided on direction. Many have shifted to buying puts for protection after months of bullish sentiment.
Greeks.live analysts report that traders are purchasing put spreads and protective puts. They cite the high volatility environment as creating opportunities for downside protection.
On-Chain Metrics Flash Warning Signs
Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has reached concerning levels. The 60-day MVRV ratio has surged to 8.26%, showing short-term holders sitting on substantial gains.
ETHEREUM
Realized price & MVRV 🐳 pic.twitter.com/odoI0mhS9I
— Cryptollica⚡️ (@Cryptollica) June 11, 2025
This level often precedes price corrections as profitable traders begin selling. The 180-day MVRV remains low at just 0.65%, creating a wide gap between short and mid-term holder performance.
Such spreads typically trigger profit-taking behavior. The divergence began in late April when Ethereum rallied due to increased ETF inflows.
The Network Realized Profit/Loss indicator has also spiked recently. This metric measures actual gains or losses from ETH movements, suggesting some holders have already started selling.
When both MVRV and NPL indicators signal simultaneously, the risk of near-term price drops increases substantially. This combination is currently flashing red for Ethereum.
Technical Analysis Points to Weakness
Ethereum currently trades around $2,739, just 13% above crucial support at $2,410. This level has served as a floor during previous corrections.

A break below $2,410 could signal a deeper downtrend potentially extending toward $2,000. The Awesome Oscillator shows shrinking histogram bars, indicating declining bullish momentum.
Chart analysts have identified a bearish engulfing candle pattern on daily charts. This formation often predicts price reversals in technical analysis.
The Relative Strength Index has dropped to 49, falling below the neutral 50 line. This suggests fading buying pressure in the market.
The MACD indicator recently showed a bearish crossover, confirming that current price strength may be weakening. Multiple technical signals are aligning to suggest downward pressure.
Ethereum faces pressure from multiple angles as today’s massive options expiry coincides with concerning on-chain metrics and weakening technical indicators.
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