China’s Tariff Response Could Be Good For Bitcoin and Bring More Capital

Hayes believes that such a shift would occur if China devalues its currency, the yuan, a scenario that has previously driven Chinese capital toward Bitcoin.

A New Catalyst for Crypto Market Growth

On April 8, Hayes posted on X that a devaluation of the yuan could act as the catalyst for a new crypto bull run. He referenced past instances from 2013 and 2015, where a similar currency depreciation sparked significant interest in Bitcoin. Hayes anticipates that a similar outcome could unfold in 2025.

China’s Currency Strategy and Its Effect on Bitcoin

Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, echoed Hayes’ views, explaining that when China weakens its currency to counter trade tariffs, it often results in Chinese investors moving their capital into Bitcoin. This trend tends to drive up Bitcoin’s price, making it a bullish signal for the cryptocurrency.

If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.

CNY deval = narrative that Chinese capital flight will flow into $BTC.

It worked in 2013 , 2015, and can work in 2025.

Ignore China at your own peril. pic.twitter.com/LAOeQZEjZt

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 8, 2025

The Yuan’s Decline and Bitcoin’s Rise: A Historical Pattern

The yuan has been on a downward trajectory against the U.S. dollar since 2022. History shows that when the yuan weakens, Bitcoin typically experiences a price surge. A key example occurred in August 2015, when China devalued the yuan by nearly 2%. Although the exact link is debated, Bitcoin saw an increase in attention during this time.

2019: Another Instance of Yuan Depreciation and Bitcoin Growth

A similar pattern occurred in 2019, when the yuan fell below the significant 7:1 mark against the U.S. dollar. Bitcoin prices also saw an uptick, with some analysts suggesting that Chinese investors turned to Bitcoin as a protective hedge. During the first week of that month, Bitcoin’s value jumped by 20%.

Grayscale’s Observations on the Yuan’s Influence on Bitcoin

Grayscale, a crypto asset management firm, pointed out in 2019 that the depreciation of the yuan likely played a role in the surge of Bitcoin’s value during that period. This highlights the potential connection between currency devaluation and increased Bitcoin demand.

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