Blow For Andy Burnham As Reform Regains Opinion Poll Lead Over Labour

Reform UK has crept ahead of Labour, according to a new poll.

In a blow for Andy Burnham, YouGov found that support for Nigel Farage’s party has jumped by 4 points in the past week – the first time they have enjoyed a poll lead in weeks.

That puts them on 25%, a point ahead of Labour, who are up 1 point to 24%.

It was a bad week for Kemi Badenoch, however, with the Tories dropping 3 points to 19%.

The poll blow came just hours before Burnham delivers his first speech to Labour conference as party leader.

The prime minister had given the party a boost in the polls since replacing the deeply unpopular Keir Starmer in July.

He had been widely praised for winning voters back with his proposals to bring down the cost of living.

The most recent poll of polls compiled by Election Maps UK in August still gives Labour a 3-point lead over Reform.

However, YouGov’s research suggests Burnham’s honeymoon period might already be in decline.

It also comes after a particularly gruelling summer for Reform due to heightened scrutiny around the party finances.

Farage has been at the centre of controversy over a £5 million gift he received from Thailand-based crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne, which he did not declare to parliament.

He is currently being investigated by parliament’s standards commissioner into his finances.

Two of Farage’s close aides stepped down during Reform’s annual party conference earlier this month following a separate sting operation about donations.

The Metropolitan Police is also carrying out a criminal investigation into the party over allegations it broke foreign funding laws.

Despite the backlash over their finances, the party received a whopping £72 million in donations from crypto-billionaires within 48 hours earlier this month.

There is now speculation that the government might introduce a law banning such lump sums coming from British expats.

The survey is especially surprising considering YouGov predicted only last week that the party would win fewer seats than Labour or the Tories if an election were held now.

A mega-study suggested Farage would end up with 123 MPs, while Labour would be the largest party of 241 seats, with the Tories on 130.

Reform were unsurprisingly delighted with the YouGov poll’s latest findings.

Reform chief whip Lee Anderson responded to the poll enthusiastically, writing on X: “Here we go!”  

Deputy leader Richard Tice also wrote on X: “Burnham Bounces down.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.