Bitcoin’s Growth May Be Slowing, But Its Long-Term Strength Remains, Says Alphractal

In its latest report, the company notes that Bitcoin’s price historically surges to a multiple of its 2-year moving average (2Y SMA) during bull markets. However, those multiples have steadily declined over time, signaling that the asset is entering a more mature and less volatile phase.

Back in its early years, Bitcoin saw peak valuations reaching up to 15 times its 2Y SMA. That figure dropped to 10 in 2017, then slipped even further during the 2021 cycle, first to 5× and eventually to just 2.65×. In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t surpassed that 2.65× threshold again — reinforcing the idea that returns are compressing, and the market is stabilizing.

Currently, Alphractal estimates that the 2Y SMA ×2.65 mark aligns with a Bitcoin price around $159,000, identifying it as a potential ceiling should momentum return in the near term.

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Despite narrowing gains, analysts at Alphractal remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. “The opportunity to outperform the long-term average still exists,” the firm stated, noting that each cycle continues to demonstrate structural strength — even if the highs are less dramatic.

In short, Bitcoin may be growing up — and for long-term investors, that might be exactly what’s needed for wider adoption and enduring value.

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