Investors are piling into Bitcoin ETFs, analysts are dusting off bold forecasts, and speculation is swirling over just how aggressively the U.S. central bank will move on rates next week.

Analysts Split Between Boom and Bust

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is among the most bullish voices, telling CNBC that Bitcoin could “easily” rocket to $200,000 before 2025 closes. Others are more measured. Derive’s Sean Dawson estimates only a 23% probability that the coin trades above $140,000 by December — but he also leaves a 20% chance it could tumble below $100,000 if sentiment sours. Ethereum, he added, could climb as high as $7,000 or retreat to $3,500 depending on how the policy landscape plays out.

ETF Flows Signal Growing Appetite

Investors are already voting with their wallets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $1.1 billion in inflows over the past 10 days, including $368 million on Monday alone, according to SoSoValue. The surge suggests institutions and retail traders alike are positioning for more upside, regardless of short-term volatility.

All Eyes on September 17

The pivotal moment comes when Fed officials meet on September 17. A 0.25% cut is overwhelmingly expected, with CME FedWatch assigning an 88% probability. Yet weaker jobs data have lifted chatter about a surprise half-point reduction, with prediction markets like Polymarket raising the odds to nearly one in five.

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Such a move would jolt expectations for the rest of the year. “A quarter-point trim is already baked in,” said Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO. “A bigger cut could either fuel risk appetite — or spook markets if it signals deeper economic stress.”

A Delicate Balance

For crypto, where liquidity is everything, the Fed’s choice could set the tone for months. A routine cut might leave Bitcoin grinding higher, while an unexpected move could light a fire under prices — or extinguish optimism if seen as panic. As Ecoinmetrics warned, the nightmare scenario for bulls would be no cut at all, a hawkish twist that could hit Bitcoin and tech stocks equally hard.



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