Bitcoin Poised to Break Free from Macro Grip, Forecasts Show Strong Upside

Drawing from historical data, Peterson explored how the leading cryptocurrency has reacted in past cycles when U.S. High Yield interest rates climbed above 8%.

Looking at trends dating back to 2010, Peterson found 38 instances where such interest rate conditions occurred. In the three months following those spikes, Bitcoin delivered impressive results—averaging a 71% increase, with a median return of 31%. The worst downside during those periods?

A modest 16% drop. Based on this, Peterson believes Bitcoin could be trading anywhere between $75,000 and $138,000 in the coming quarter if similar patterns repeat.

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Another angle of his research focused on Bitcoin’s increasingly close relationship with the U.S. Dollar. Although the two assets don’t influence each other directly, Peterson argues their recent movements reflect shared exposure to broader macroeconomic forces—like shrinking liquidity, rising real interest rates, and a global pullback from risk.

Interestingly, he points out that this correlation has shifted in nature since 2024. Previously, Bitcoin and high-yield rates often moved in opposite directions, but now they’re both reacting to the same stressors. Looking ahead, Peterson predicts Bitcoin will eventually decouple from these pressures and begin to climb again—especially once monetary conditions begin to ease and capital flows return.

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