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Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold in 2025 could be a signal of shifting macroeconomic expectations, according to Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
In a recent analysis, McGlone highlights that Bitcoin’s languishing price compared to gold may reflect a broader market outlook anticipating deflation and recession—a typical cycle transition following inflationary periods.
Bitcoin/Gold Ratio and Deflation Signals
As of May, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio peaked at 33x, meaning one Bitcoin was worth the same as 33 ounces of gold. McGlone interprets this high as a potential inflection point.
If deflation takes hold and equities weaken, the market could gravitate toward traditional safe havens like gold.
“The recession that didn’t materialize in 2023 may yet arrive,” McGlone said, adding that this could push the S&P 500 down to 4,000, gold toward $4,000 per ounce, and Bitcoin to $40,000—creating a 10x Bitcoin/gold ratio, compared to today’s 33x peak.
S&P 500: The Missing Catalyst?
According to the Bloomberg chart, Bitcoin’s historical strength relative to gold has often aligned with strong equity performance. If the S&P 500 fails to maintain momentum, BTC may struggle to outperform gold in the current environment.
McGlone’s data suggests that a rising stock market may be essential for Bitcoin to reclaim a leading role among risk-on assets.
Inflation vs. Deflation Dynamics
The commentary contrasts Bitcoin’s performance in inflationary environments with its vulnerability during potential disinflationary or deflationary periods. While Bitcoin has historically benefited from loose monetary policy and liquidity, McGlone warns that a shift toward tighter financial conditions or economic contraction could reinforce gold’s appeal over crypto assets.
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