Bitcoin Enters Critical Zone as Price Discovery Faces Sell Pressure

As Bitcoin struggles to push decisively above $111.8K, on-chain data from Glassnode suggests the market is entering a fragile price discovery phase.

With long-term holders gradually selling into strength, analysts now point to a growing probability of a short-term correction, particularly in the absence of a strong bullish catalyst.

Spent Supply Quantiles Reveal Key Support Zones

Glassnode highlights the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) Quantiles as a critical tool for navigating these uncertain periods. This metric segments coins being spent into percentile bands, revealing where previous accumulation occurred and where current sell pressure may emerge.

The 0.95 quantile, currently at $103.7K, represents the top 5% of spent supply and is acting as the first major on-chain support zone. Below it, the 0.85 quantile at $95.6K is seen as the next structural level. A sustained breach of this zone could signal a deeper risk-off environment.

Historically, BTC’s price tends to consolidate in bullish sideways phases between the 0.85 and 0.95 quantiles. When the asset trades above the 0.95 band, euphoric conditions often follow. Conversely, sustained trading below the 0.75 quantile typically marks bearish phases or periods of investor caution.

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Defines Sentiment Range

To better understand short-term sentiment, Glassnode turns to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which reflects the average purchase price of coins held for fewer than 155 days. This level currently sits at $97.1K, placing it right between recent support and resistance.

Overlaying standard deviation bands on this model provides further context. The +1σ band, marking bullish breakout conditions, lies at $114.8K, while the -1σ band, associated with elevated downside risk, sits at $83.2K. Together, these levels now frame the critical price envelope for short-term market direction.

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Conclusion: Momentum Hinges on $103.7K–$114.8K Range

With a large portion of supply having changed hands near current price levels, market behavior within the $97K–$114K range will determine whether bulls regain control or further distribution sets in. A breakdown below the $95.6K zone could confirm a broader reset, while a breakout above $114.8K may reignite momentum.

For now, on-chain signals point to caution, with investors watching closely as Bitcoin navigates the next inflection point in its 2025 cycle.

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