Bitcoin Bull Market Still Intact as Realized Cap Holds Support

According to a new report by Alphractal, Bitcoin’s current uptrend remains fundamentally strong from an on-chain perspective.

The key indicator supporting this outlook is the Long-Term Realized Cap Impulse, which has held firm at what analysts consider the final base of support for this cycle.

Realized Cap Impulse Signals Sustained Demand

The Realized Cap Impulse metric tracks long-term capital inflows and outflows, offering insight into market behavior through the lens of realized capitalization. As of early June, the metric is holding above its critical support range, indicating consistent demand and reinforcing the ongoing bull market narrative.

Alphractal emphasizes that as long as this metric stays above the current level, upward momentum is likely to continue. This implies both short-term and long-term investor conviction, even amid volatility.

Final Bullish Phase Before Extended Correction?

While the bullish trend is still intact, Alphractal projects that this impulse phase may peak around October 2025. After that, the firm expects a prolonged bearish period lasting roughly 12 months, potentially extending until late 2026.

This forecast marks the current impulse as the final major upward phase before a full market reset — a common pattern in previous on-chain cycles.

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Why Realized Cap Impulse Matters

The Realized Cap Impulse offers a unique view into macro-level supply and demand shifts, filtering out short-term noise. By analyzing the average value of coins last moved on-chain, the metric captures large capital reallocations that shape long-term price trajectories.

This makes it a critical tool for assessing broader market sentiment and timing strategic decisions — especially for long-term holders and institutional participants.

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