Some see the downturn as the first sign of a bear market, but others argue it’s a routine correction within a larger uptrend.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler falls firmly in the latter camp. Using Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles as a guide, Adler says the market is now in the last leg of the bull run — a phase that typically concludes more than 500 days after a halving event. By his estimate, the final peak could arrive between October and November.

Adler points to selling activity from long-term holders earlier in the year, with major exits recorded near $70,000, $98,000, and $117,000.

While those sell-offs created pressure, he notes that institutions have been stepping in to absorb the supply. For Adler, that’s evidence the bull market is intact, even if momentum has slowed.

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Historically, Bitcoin’s ultimate bull-market top comes when prices trade at roughly 11 times the average cost basis of long-term investors. If that pattern holds, Adler believes a new all-time high could form within the next two months, before the cycle finally rolls over.

For now, the market sits in a zone of uncertainty — with traders weighing whether the August retreat marks exhaustion or simply the setup for Bitcoin’s last, euphoric run higher.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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