Arthur Hayes Questions U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Hopes, Warns of ‘Trump Trade’ Risks

Hayes argued that political optics and fiscal reality make it highly unlikely the U.S. would allocate printed dollars to accumulate BTC reserves.

He emphasized that while the government technically owns over 200,000 BTC seized in criminal cases, this doesn’t indicate a shift toward intentional accumulation.

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Hayes also warned of a potential Bitcoin sell-off if traders begin overbetting on “Trump trades,” believing policy support will drive continued gains. According to him, such optimism may be misplaced and could trigger downside volatility.

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