Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Poised to Benefit From Trade War Fallout

In a new interview with Felix Jauvin on the Forward Guidance YouTube channel, Hayes argued that governments worldwide will have no choice but to print massive amounts of money to cushion the effects of rising trade barriers. Historically, such liquidity surges have triggered powerful Bitcoin rallies.

“Every major economy needs to print money to counteract the damage from declining globalization,” Hayes explained. “At the end of the day, they’re going to print — and Bitcoin benefits.”

Trade War Math: Stock Market at Risk

Hayes also warned of collateral damage in traditional financial markets. He pointed out that if U.S. President Donald Trump successfully drives the country’s current account deficit to zero, it will force foreign investors to pull back from American stocks.

“Foreigners earned trillions selling goods to America and recycled that money into Treasury bonds and U.S. tech stocks. If Trump pushes to zero the current account deficit, they have to sell stocks — it’s just math,” Hayes said.

He argued that a major stock market sell-off would hurt U.S. government revenue from capital gains taxes, forcing policymakers to ramp up money printing — a scenario that would provide yet another tailwind for Bitcoin.

“This is where Bitcoin finally decouples from tech stocks,” Hayes added, noting that Bitcoin could break free from its past correlation with technology equities.

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Central Banks Still Favor Gold Over Bitcoin

Despite Bitcoin’s rising profile, Hayes doubts that central banks will rush to add the digital asset to their reserves.

“I don’t think they’re mentally prepared for that leap,” Hayes said. “They understand gold. They’ve been trained on gold. They’ve read history books about gold.”

Instead, Hayes expects gold to remain the safe-haven asset of choice for central banks, while Bitcoin continues to grow organically through grassroots adoption and structural macro shifts.

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