In recent days, President Trump has made several inaccurate statements regarding Canada while implementing new tariff increases on the nation and discussing potential additional ones.
On Wednesday morning, Mr. Trump enacted a comprehensive 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, which will have a significant effect on Canada, the U.S.’s largest foreign supplier of these metals. An additional 25% tariff on a majority of Canadian products is scheduled to take effect on April 2.
Experts caution that these tariff hikes could result in rising consumer prices, but Mr. Trump has partially justified them by stating that he is safeguarding American manufacturers and motivating Canada to address drug-related crime.
Nevertheless, in various interviews and social media comments, Mr. Trump has inflated the scale of the U.S. trade deficit with Canada and the volume of fentanyl crossing from the north. The president has also mischaracterized Canada’s tariffs on U.S. dairy and lumber products.
Here’s an overview of some of these claims:
Trump’s misleading assertion that Canada imposes tariffs exceeding 200% on U.S. dairy products
President Trump stated on March 7: “In Canada, we find that they’re charging us over 200% for dairy products… And when I left, we had that well taken care of, but under Biden they just kept raising it.”
Details: President Trump has claimed that Canada unfairly imposes tariffs above 200% on American dairy products during President Biden’s administration, yet these rates have remained unchanged since before Biden assumed office.
The over 200% tariffs on U.S. dairy products are only activated if U.S. dairy exports surpass specific yearly duty-free thresholds, and U.S. dairy producers assert they have never approached these limits.
Moreover, these tariffs were established during the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Mr. Trump signed during his initial presidency. Canada’s official tariff schedules for 2020 and 2025 confirm that tariffs on U.S. dairy products have not changed from the end of his first term through the conclusion of President Biden’s term. Both lists reflect a tariff rate of 245.5% for any cheese products exceeding the duty-free threshold.
Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman stated to CBS News that the dairy tariffs are aimed at “protecting our farmers and families.” In 2024, Canada became the second-largest importer of U.S. dairy, purchasing approximately $1.1 billion worth.
According to trade statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. exported roughly twice as much dairy to Canada as Canada exported dairy to the U.S. in the previous year.
Trump’s misleading claim regarding Canada’s “tremendously high tariff” on lumber versus the U.S.’s “tiny fraction of that”
President Trump asserted on March 7: “They have a tremendously high tariff, give you the exact numbers in a little while coming out, on lumber. So, they sell us lumber, they have a tremendous tariff. They make it impossible for us to sell lumber or dairy products into Canada, but our numbers are a tiny fraction of that, almost non-existent.”
Details: On March 4, Canada instituted a 25% tariff on softwood lumber imported from the U.S., which is high compared to recent history.
However, Mr. Trump did not clarify that these tariffs are a reaction to the 25% duties on most Canadian goods, including lumber, that the Trump administration initially proposed in early March and that are now anticipated to take effect on April 2.
Prior to this trade dispute, Canada had not enforced any tariffs on U.S. softwood lumber for several years, according to Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets specializing in wood products.
“It’s certainly true that right now there are tariffs in place, but that was not the case before the onset of the trade war. These are retaliatory measures against what the U.S. instigated, if you will, in early March,” Jalbert noted.
The U.S. had previously applied duties on imported softwood lumber, with Canadian lumber tariffs increasing from 8% to 14.5% in 2024.
Trump’s false claim regarding a $200 billion trade deficit with Canada
President Trump claimed on March 13: “In the case of Canada, we’re spending $200 billion a year to subsidize Canada.”
And on Feb. 26 he said: “The tariffs will make it impossible for them to sell lumber or anything else into the United States. And all I’m asking to do is break even or lose a little bit, but not lose $200 billion.”
Details: Mr. Trump has continually inflated the U.S.-Canada trade deficit, asserting it to be as high as $200 billion.
In reality, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services with Canada in 2024 was approximately $35.7 billion, according to the most recent trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on March 6. This deficit decreased from $40.6 billion in 2023.
In terms of goods alone, the U.S. imported $70.6 billion more from Canada than it exported in 2024, a decline from $72.3 billion in 2023.
The primary contributor to the deficit with Canada is the substantial quantity of unrefined oil that the U.S. imports from Canada, as explained by Julian Karaguesian, a lecturer at the economics department of McGill University.
“Many Canadian economists argue that if you exclude energy, Canada actually has a small deficit with the United States,” Karaguesian stated.
Trump’s misleading claim regarding significant amounts of fentanyl coming from Canada
President Trump mentioned in his address to Congress on March 4: “Much has been said over the last three months about Mexico and Canada, but we have very large deficits with both of them. But even more importantly, they have allowed fentanyl to come into our country at levels never seen before, killing hundreds of thousands of our citizens.”
Details: Mr. Trump has pointed to Canada’s inability to prevent the influx of illicit drugs as justification for implementing tariffs, asserting that fentanyl from Canada is coming in “at levels never seen before.” He claimed, “The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive.”
However, Mr. Trump exaggerates the volume of fentanyl arriving from the northern border. In 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the U.S.-Canada border, representing about 0.2% of all fentanyl confiscated by CBP that year. In contrast, nearly 21,100 pounds—approximately 96.6% of the total—was seized at the southern border.
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