Altcoin Season Hasn’t Arrived Yet—But AI Model Offers Clues

Deutscher noted that in previous bull markets, especially in 2017 and 2021, altcoins delivered spectacular returns ranging from 1,000% to 10,000%. So far in this cycle, similar explosive moves have yet to occur, aside from modest surges in April and late 2024.

He emphasized that most major altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin, suggesting that the altcoin season is still in a dormant phase.

According to Deutscher, several structural changes in the current market explain the muted altcoin performance:

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Unlike the liquidity-fueled rally of 2020–2021, today’s environment is shaped by tightened monetary policy and Fed balance sheet reductions, which limit speculative capital inflows. Institutional Bitcoin Demand: The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of institutional giants like BlackRock have concentrated liquidity in Bitcoin, reducing the capital rotation into altcoins. Ethereum Lagging Behind: ETH’s inability to break out against BTC has also prevented a broader altcoin rally. Retail Disengagement: High-profile crypto collapses (UST, FTX) and losses from recent memecoin manias have cooled interest from individual investors.

Deutscher’s insights suggest that, despite Bitcoin’s strength, the broader altcoin market remains in a holding pattern, waiting for key structural signals to flip before another full-scale rally can emerge.

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