Altcoin Pain Nears End? 1247-Day Downtrend Suggests a Bottom Is Close

According to crypto analyst @nobrainflip, the ratio of the total market cap excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin is signaling a potential market bottom—marking the end of a grueling 1,247-day downtrend.

Market Sentiment: Too Bad to Stay Bad?

In a post on X, the analyst emphasized a classic market principle: “When everything is too good → market top. When everything is too bad → market bottom.” By that logic, the prolonged bearish sentiment surrounding altcoins might actually be a contrarian indicator pointing to an imminent turnaround.

The accompanying chart tracks the “Others/BTC” ratio on a monthly time frame. It shows that altcoins have been in a downtrend since early 2021, when the ratio last peaked. This latest cycle has now extended for over 1,200 days—longer than the previous two major altcoin corrections combined.

Historical Patterns Suggest Reversal

Looking back at historical cycles:

A 945-day correction ended in 2020, preceding a strong altcoin rally. A shorter 426-day downturn occurred before another bounce.

The current cycle spans 1,247 days and counting, with much higher trading volume compared to prior periods.

This extended drawdown, combined with an exhausted sentiment and compressed valuation, is building the case for a structural bottom.

A Trigger Point May Be Close

Crypto markets often pivot on emotional extremes, and the lack of enthusiasm around altcoins may indicate such a moment is near. The post notes that market participants typically need a “trigger” to shift from selling to buying. With altcoins deeply out of favor and valuations near historic lows relative to Bitcoin, that catalyst could arrive soon.

While timing market bottoms remains speculative, historical ratio patterns and sentiment signals suggest that altcoins may be nearing the end of their long winter. A reversal could mark the start of the next rotation cycle—potentially favoring mid- and low-cap assets as capital diversifies beyond Bitcoin.

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